EURUSD forex setup

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 27

It’s weekend! Another trading week has passed and some decent opportunities have come along. The week wasn’t really that eventful, though. I largely skipped Thursday and Friday as I wasn’t feeling too well, but I had a good GBPNZD short (with pin & drive entry) running on the daily charts since the beginning of the week:

 

GBPNZD D short

 

Additionally, I had a nice and quick AUDCAD price action play on Friday that got filled to the pip with deadly accuracy. I love when that happens!

AUDCAD 1H

 

Quick note: I’ve started a new article series called The Exit. Rather than focus on finding trade setups, The Exit will discuss how I manage and exit my trades in great detail. I’ve already posted a first article discussing an EURAUD 1H short I took last week, have a look!

 

But let’s first do a quick recap of the setups of last week.

 

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EURAUD

The Exit: EURAUD 1H short

On the one hand, traders are being told over and over again that entries only account for about 10% of your overall trading success and I completely agree with that statement. On the other hand, traders (me included) make lists and lists of weekly analysis with the most interesting setups for the upcoming week.

 

How’s that for a contradiction?

 

Don’t get me wrong, I definitely believe that there’s value in my weekly forex outlooks. But if so much of the focus needs to be on trade management and how we exit a trade, why is this a topic much less talked about? Maybe because it’s much harder to talk about trade and exit management than to call a setup? Or maybe because many traders feel uncertain to give away how they actually manage their trades?

 

Of course, I get that I can’t make a forecast on the exits of trades that still need to happen. What I can do, however, is discuss how some of my past trades (both winners and losers) have worked out and go through the trade and my trading decisions in detail. This way, many of the common concepts such as “cut your losses and let your winners run” might become a bit more tangible and easier to grasp for everyone.

 

I’ve decided to call this series on trade management and exit management: The Exit.

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Trader development plan

Why you need a trader development plan

 

I’ve learned everything there is to know about trading.

 

Says no professional trader, ever.

 

Not improving is deadly in this business. Seeing your P/L go south kind of deadly. Every trader who has made it has done so because of continuous learning. A desire to get better at the trading game. Every single one of those traders has a trader development plan. But what exactly is that?

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GBPCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 20

Hi there, squad! How was your trading week? The past week has been… interesting, to say the least! The troubles that surround Trump (the firing of CIA boss Comey, leaks to Russia, etc) kind of held the markets hostage and much of the current market action is fuelled by politics and uncertainty, rather than pure technicals and economic data.

 

However, there were still opportunities to be had! The AUDCHF 4H short we discussed in last week’s outlook turned out to be my favourite trade of the week and we’ll review it in my weekly trade review. The GBPJPY short and Silver long trade also worked out nicely, with only our EURJPY short deciding to move a bit higher. No harm was done, our alerts were never hit so no action was taken on that one. The WhaM system also had a solid performance, although I’ve slightly changed the rules recently, but more on that soon!

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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AUDCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 14

Good morning traders! Another trading week has passed and now is the time to look at the opportunities for the upcoming week. My reversal system had a bit of a hard time this week, with a lot of really nice reversal setups without follow through. I’ve had 4 trades that I basically had to cut off around break-even because nothing was happening! Luckily, some of my other systems made more than up for it so it was a good week after all.

 

In the current market environment, I found this quote by Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict very fitting and one of the best pieces of advice you can give any trader (it’s a coincidence that I’m just reading this book):

 

Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict

 

News-wise, the French election outcome was largely managed well by the market and the Euro sold off after the news in a classic “buy the rumour, sell the news” type of event. The Euro was being bought for a very long time already, so some pressure on the sell-side was to be expected, as I predicted before the election:

 

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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Trading chartbook

A chartbook can make or break your trading

Keeping a chartbook of trades you have taken might seem like such a random thing to do. A nice to have, for traders feeling nostalgic about past trades, maybe. You might’ve heard people talking about it, but I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t think twice of it and just went on with whatever you were doing.

 

I’m here to say that such a collection of trade screenshots (sometimes called a playbook or chartbook) is much less trivial. It might even be crucial to your success as a trader.

 

Let’s try this experiment: do you keep a trading journal? If you answered “yes” here: well done! Now pick a trade from 3 months ago and look at just the numbers. From that data, you can probably see it was a winner of a loser, your R-multiple, stop loss and take profit placement, MFE and MAE and so on.

 

But without a chart screenshot,

  • can you tell what you could’ve done better on this particular trade?
  • if you could’ve entered at a better price point?
  • exited with more profit?
  • if there were chart patterns you missed?
  • if that new strategy idea you have would’ve worked out here?

 

No? That’s where a chartbook comes in. And it’s not even the only benefit of keeping track with chart screenshots.

 

Since keeping a chartbook, I found it much easier to stick to the good setups and avoid less than optimal setups. I know what to look for, but that visual double check using screenshots of past setups makes all the difference. But let’s first take a step back. What exactly is it?

 

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Forex buy and sell expert advisor

MT4 EA Course: Buy And Sell

This article is part of a series. Here are the other parts:

 

Welcome to the fourth part of our MetaTrader4 Expert Advisor course! If you haven’t done so, please have a look at first three instalments.

Forex Wall-E

 

Up until now, we’ve just been working with buy orders. But we’re traders, not investors! So rather than a buy-only system, it would be nice if our expert advisor could also short the market. In other words, we want to support going both long and short; buy and sell. We’re still working on our Forex Wall-E expert advisor, so let’s continue where we left off!

 

 

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EURAUD forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 6

Happy Sunday, squad! How was your week? I recently decided to do some trading and travelling (’cause why not?) and have just spent my first week in Kyoto, Japan. The combination of a rich culture, beautiful weather and delicious food is really growing on me! For the next couple of months, I’ll continue to combine trading with travelling and Japan was the first on my list. If you happen to live in Kyoto or Tokyo and want to meet up for some drinks, get in touch!

 

Sugoi! Kyoto rocks. Epic culture, beautiful nature and delicious food 🍜🍣⛩🏯😎 

A post shared by Smart Forex Learning – Felix (@smartforexlearning) on

 

Last week had some good opportunities for reversal traders but it wasn’t always as easy to trade. There are still a lot of uncertainties related to the North-Korea conflict and it was a news-heavy week with FOMC speak and an NFP release. This made some markets less predictable than usual but as traders, we have to take the market as it makes information available to us.

 

The most important upcoming event is the second round of the French elections on Sunday (7 May). If you remember two weeks ago, we had a big post-French election gap after the first election round that was almost ubiquitous across many Euro-related markets.

 

French election gap forex

 

By now, Macron seems to be comfortably in the lead over Le Pen, so most of the Euro bullishness should be already priced in. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the euro sell off after the election results since a correction is long overdue and this could be a “buy the rumour, sell the news” kind of reaction.

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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