GBPCHF

Weekly forex outlook: March 4

Hi traders, I’m back with another weekly outlook! Lots of nice setups lining up for next week so even though the weekend has just started, I’m already looking forward to next week. Last week, I moved to a new place (in Brussels), so I was a little busier than usual, but it was an interesting week nonetheless.

 

Current market behaviour

 

A general observation is that the markets seem to be more skittish than usual, mainly fuelled by various fundamental factors in the world right now. Just yesterday (Friday), we could see the euro taking off on news about an early poll on the French election. Tuesday was focussed on the Trump speech to congress, which was the first time president Trump gave such a long speech since the inauguration. Markets were hoping for some details on the proposed tax cuts and infrastructure spending, but Trump was remarkably vague on details. In all, it was a rather uneventful speech and a rehash of the promises he made during his presidential campaign.

 

Let’s have a look at the overall market last week. The dollar initially surged on hints by Fed officials that a March rate hike would be likely. In the second part of the week, it made a market top and seems to have set in a downtrend. Even though almost every Fed official including Yellen indicated that a March rate hike was on the table and that the US economy had met Fed objectives, the DXY ended the week little changed. This could indicate that the rate hike was already largely priced in and the market was more focussed on other, mixed economic news.

 

Gold has ended the week quite a bit lower, continuing the downtrend initiated by the double top from last week. Even though the dollar was down for the second part of the week, the market seems to believe in dollar strength. This risk-on environment is the likely reason gold is selling off.

 

Finally, oil has moved down for the week. Better than expected crude oil inventories couldn’t prevent the commodity to sell off, but it rebounded near the second part of the week to around 53.20 a barrel.

 

Market overview

 

 

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Mirror lake

Fighting a continuous market bias

After using a trading journal for a while, I noticed something remarkable. For one specific reversal strategy I trade, around 75% of my trades were sell orders. Unknowingly, I seemed to have a bearish market bias.

 

 

Have you ever experienced something similar?

 

 

You might think that this sounds very similar to what people call a “permabear”, an investor who continuously acts in the expectation that stocks will fall. However, I don’t believe this is the same thing. In contrary to these investors, I don’t have a strong overall bullish or bearish feeling to any market. I will buy just as easily as I will sell. I do, however, have a harder time “seeing” certain bullish reveral setups.

 

I found this a bit unusual, so I looked into it. I found it easier to discover the bearish setups on my charts. I would often look over bullish setups that are exact mirror images of their bearish counterparts, but fail to either spot them or don’t find them convincing enough to trade. After I started monitoring this more closely in my weekly reviews and watchlists, I decided to do something about it.

 

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XAGUSD Forex

Weekly forex outlook: February 19

Hi traders, I’m back with a preview of what I’m looking at for the upcoming week. The past couple of weeks has been good for reversal traders! Plenty of reversals materialised, often with very classic rounding tops and bottoms and clean retests to well-defined levels. Additionally, the WhaM strategy has also produced a couple of nice setups, one of which I’ll highlight in our past week review.

 

Let’s have a look at the overall market last week. The US dollar pretty much ended where it started. It did so, but not without a big swing up and down! After better than expected PPI numbers and a speech from Fed chair Yellen, the dollar rallied strongly. However, it found a (double) top on the next day and sold off quite a bit, only to regain some of the losses on Friday.

 

Gold shows us the opposite picture, with the market initially in a risk-off mode, where gold took a dive. Those losses were quickly recovered though and gold closed the week for a small gain.

 

Finally, oil sends us mixed signals. This week showed us disappointing crude oil inventory numbers, but then again the oil producing nations seem to hold their end of the production cut quite well, so the price is bouncing around.

 

Macro outlook

 

 

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Closing trades for the weekend

Should you close trades before the weekend?

It’s Friday. TGIF! You already have a drink in your hand and ready for some weekend activities, but you still have one trade open. Should you close trades before the market shuts down for the weekend or not? Multiple traders will give you many different answers. It’s an interesting topic and when you want to know what to do, there are a few considerations to make. I decided to look into it.

 

Close trades or not?

 

Close trades over the weekend

 

Let’s look at two different scenarios. Scenario one shows a trade setup where the trade was kept open over the weekend. Scenario two shows a trade setup where the trade was closed before the weekend.

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NZDUSD forex

Weekly forex outlook: February 12

Another weekend, another weekly forex outlook! There wasn’t a weekly outlook last week since I suffered a bad cold, so I took a little step back. The past week, I was feeling better though and besides the weekly outlook, I would like to share some of the setups I’ve taken as well. It was a relatively quiet week with not a lot of high-impact economic news, but plenty of interesting setups nonetheless.

 

Let’s have a look at the overall market last week. The US dollar gained quite a bit and ended the week with just a small retracement. Gold initially climbed up a bit but the market found resistance, made a double top and sold off in the second part of the week, only to partially rally back up on Friday. Oil pretty much ended where it started, but not without a major swing. After an initial sell-off, better than expected OPEC numbers made oil rally again and it ended the week strong.

 

Forex macro overview

 

 

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Expert advisor trailing stops code

MT4 EA Course: Trailing Stops

This article is part of a series. Here are the other parts:

 

Welcome to the third part of our MetaTrader4 Expert Advisor course! If you haven’t done so, please have a look at first two instalments.

 

Forex Wall-E

In this part, I want to discuss stops. We’ve seen how to create an order with a simple pip-based stop in the previous article. What I want to look at this time, is how to implement dynamic, trailing stops. We’re still working on our Forex Wall-E expert advisor, so let’s continue where we left off!

 

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WhaM, jump

The Easiest Forex Trading Strategy You’ll Find

Today, I want to share a forex trading strategy with you, called WhaM. This trading strategy is so easy to use, even your parents would be able to trade it. I reckon even your dog could trade this. Really, it’s super straightforward.

 

This trading strategy is not created by me. I read about it a long time ago from Will at wmd4x.com, who originally came up with these patterns and found a way to trade them. This is my interpretation of the system and how I currently trade it.

 

It’s one of the strategies I’m actively trading and it’s by far the one with the least moving variables. No indicators. No complicated rules. I don’t even use candlestick charts for this strategy! And most importantly: it just works incredibly well.

 

WhaM forex trading strategy

 

If this sounds like a sales pitch, it’s only because I always get excited telling people about it 🙂 Don’t worry, I’m not selling anything. Everything you need to know to adopt this strategy is right here, in this article. By sharing this strategy for free, I’m hoping that some people will benefit from it. I also want to show that trading systems don’t have to be complicated and trading consistently and profitably is absolutely possible, given proper rules.

 

If, after reading, you feel that this article was useful to you, I’d appreciate it if you share it so more people can learn about this forex trading strategy:

 

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XAUUSD

Weekly forex outlook: January 28

Hi traders! How was your trading week? I’m quite early with my weekly forex outlook this weekend. One of the things I’ve started to make a habit of (thanks to this book), is to get up early. It’s incredible what you can get done if you get up a couple hours earlier, it feels to me like I almost have an extra half day available to me!

 

The past week was relatively quiet. However, it still gave us excellent conditions for a couple of trade setups I was describing in last week’s outlook (see the past week trade review section below!).

 

The dollar initially moved lower but regained some of its losses in the second part of the week, ending pretty much where it started. As predicted in our previous outlook, gold saw a sell-off to below-1200 levels. Finally, oil crept up a bit higher but stayed mostly in the range it’s currently in.

 

Macro weekly outlook

 

 

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AUDUSD Forex outlook

Weekly forex outlook: January 21

It’s weekend, so I’m back with my weekly preview of the most interesting setups! Last week was a bit of a dud for me, with multiple setups either not materialising (AUDUSD, Gold) or being quite hard to trade (I’m looking at you, Theresa May and EURGBP). On the one hand, these situations make it clear how worthwhile it is to wait for confirmation before getting into a setup. On the other hand, it shows that being a trader is never easy! Last week ended in a loss for me, which happens. This is totally fine and only motivates me to keep on learning and improving!

 

The big news last week happened on Friday, with the inauguration of president Trump. Because Trump also gave an inauguration speech, I kept on the sidelines for most of Friday. The speech was quite moderate and the USD seemed to be relatively unaffected. However, let’s see how the market opens on Monday.

 


The dollar saw an initial increase in the first part of last week, but then gave some of its gains back in the second part. It seems that Gold is at a turning point (which I talked about in last week’s market outlook), but ended the week only slightly higher up. It still shows signs of a pending reversal, but it’s too soon to tell and I’d like to see the price move lower before taking action. Oil ended up higher last week, but the price seems to be ranging for now in search for a clear trend.

 

Market overview

 

 

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Trading routines

Trading routines: build the habits of top traders

I went from being a bad trader to a good trader after changing this thing only. Afterwards, I couldn’t believe how simple it was. However, it required a different mindset.

 

The secret? Trading routines.

 

Routines or habits are extremely powerful. Marathon runners have the strength to finish a 42km run because of it. No runner is capable of enduring a marathon just like that. Instead, they make the conscious decision to start training. Using an intense routine, they see improvements day after day. Getting closer to running that full marathon. Pushing limits and improving until you make it to the finish line.

 

Marathon running

 

Trading is not that different from running a marathon. We start out by knowing little to nothing about the markets. Day by day, we learn how to trade, interpret candles, patterns and market behaviour. We learn what works and what doesn’t. Some traders find out trading is just not for them or discover other priorities in life. Others persevere. They continue chipping away at the wall that stands between them and trading profitably.

 

Both marathon runners and traders make it because of their routines. It’s an endurance play, without shortcuts. Forget the get-rich-quick attitude. A marathon can’t be finished without training. Similarly, consistent and profitable trading doesn’t happen without continuous improvement. That’s where trading routines come in.

 

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