AUDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 2

Hello traders, happy Sunday! Last week was again an excellent week for reversal traders and there were many interesting setups in the market. I’ll review one trade I took in USDJPY and a sell in XAUUSD. Next week will be a little busier with non-farm payrolls on Friday and other economic news spread out over the week, but there are again many setups developing, so plenty to look at!

 

Current market behaviour

 

The dollar turned around this week. As you can see on the DXY chart, the dollar rallied for pretty much the entire week. Fuelled by positive economic news releases and a slew of FOMC member speeches, the dollar ended the week quite a bit higher.

 

DXY Daily

 

Although, we can see that the overall daily sentiment is still bearish, with the dollar index still making lower lows and lower highs. It wouldn’t be surprising if the rally of the past week was just a retracement in the larger timeframe picture, with the dollar continuing its path down soon again. On the other hand, if the dollar bulls can keep the momentum going, we might see more bullishness next week.

 

Market overview

 

Gold is inversely correlated to the dollar and so sold off for a major part of the week. However, Friday painted a different picture. Some FOMC member speeches were rather cautious, saying that the current positive market sentiment hasn’t yet resulted in improved economic figures. The market took this as dovish news and moved money to risk-off assets, such as gold. The result was a strong Friday rally on XAUUSD.

 

Finally, crude oil finally saw some improvement in trend structure. For the first time in a long time, we could see a clear trending market instead of the usual, skittish market behaviour we’ve been seeing in the past couple of weeks. Oil ended the week strongly higher.

 

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EURUSD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 26

Another week has passed, so we take the time to look at how the trading week went and at the same time, make our outlook for the next week. The past week had many reversals happening and many of the setups I indicated last week played out really well. We’ll have a look at some of these in a moment.

 

This week, it was a little harder to find good setups. We see less trending markets and if they are trending, they’re either in between S&R levels or just not trending cleanly. Nevertheless, I have selected some pairs I find worth looking at.

 

Current market behaviour

 

This week, we could see the USD continue its path downwards. Wall street might keep betting on the infrastructure and regulation changes that the Trump presidency has promised, but for now, we see a weakening dollar, indicating that the initial rally high after the inauguration has largely worn off. By now, Wall Street wants to see some concrete evidence – not some vague promises – in order to get the dollar higher.

 

For now, this is good news for technical traders. In the absence of political news, the dollar is respecting the technical elements more than anything. Price is also nearing a previous swing low, which should act as support and might give us new opportunities to buy the dollar next week, but let’s see.

 

Market overview week 25 March

 

Gold had a good week, ending quite a bit higher than last week and oil had another very skittish week, ending the week a bit lower after higher than expected crude oil inventories.

 

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AUDCAD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 19

Hi traders, how’s your weekend going? I had a very short trading week since as of Wednesday, I was out of the country for a business trip, so no trading from then on. I did, however, have one trade in the beginning of the week that I want to go over with you and we’ll get to that in a minute.

 

Last week was also filled with fundamental news releases, so, on the one hand, it was a good time to be away since I don’t trade news releases. On the other hand, I saw most of the previous week’s outlook unfolding really nicely (like CHFJPYGBPCHF and NZDUSD) without being able to trade them. Then again, new opportunities will always present themselves, so I’m just looking forward to the new week!

 

On the US Fed rate hike

 

Last week finally had the much anticipated US Fed rate hike event, which went down a bit different than most people thought it would. A rate hike is basically a positive event for the USD, so many were expecting a rally after the hike. However, on Tuesday I mentioned this on Twitter:

 

 

And then on Wednesday, this happened:

DXY rate hike

 

An initial short run up when the FOMC statement was released and then a huge sell-off at the time of the FOMC press conference.

 

It makes sense. Think about it. The market was pricing in a 100% rate hike already, so the hike was no surprise. Everyone who wanted to had already positioned themselves. Additionally, there was one dissenter (Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari), so the decision to hike rates wasn’t unanimous.

 

And greedy as the market is, we were already looking for signs of even more improvement and potentially 4 rate hikes for 2017. Unfortunately, this didn’t happen. Fed chair Janet Yellen mainly kept the same tone as in previous statements and the Fed’s economic projections stayed pretty much the same as what they released in December. Hence the sell-off.

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NZDUSD forex

Weekly forex outlook: February 12

Another weekend, another weekly forex outlook! There wasn’t a weekly outlook last week since I suffered a bad cold, so I took a little step back. The past week, I was feeling better though and besides the weekly outlook, I would like to share some of the setups I’ve taken as well. It was a relatively quiet week with not a lot of high-impact economic news, but plenty of interesting setups nonetheless.

 

Let’s have a look at the overall market last week. The US dollar gained quite a bit and ended the week with just a small retracement. Gold initially climbed up a bit but the market found resistance, made a double top and sold off in the second part of the week, only to partially rally back up on Friday. Oil pretty much ended where it started, but not without a major swing. After an initial sell-off, better than expected OPEC numbers made oil rally again and it ended the week strong.

 

Forex macro overview

 

 

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AUDUSD Forex outlook

Weekly forex outlook: January 21

It’s weekend, so I’m back with my weekly preview of the most interesting setups! Last week was a bit of a dud for me, with multiple setups either not materialising (AUDUSD, Gold) or being quite hard to trade (I’m looking at you, Theresa May and EURGBP). On the one hand, these situations make it clear how worthwhile it is to wait for confirmation before getting into a setup. On the other hand, it shows that being a trader is never easy! Last week ended in a loss for me, which happens. This is totally fine and only motivates me to keep on learning and improving!

 

The big news last week happened on Friday, with the inauguration of president Trump. Because Trump also gave an inauguration speech, I kept on the sidelines for most of Friday. The speech was quite moderate and the USD seemed to be relatively unaffected. However, let’s see how the market opens on Monday.

 


The dollar saw an initial increase in the first part of last week, but then gave some of its gains back in the second part. It seems that Gold is at a turning point (which I talked about in last week’s market outlook), but ended the week only slightly higher up. It still shows signs of a pending reversal, but it’s too soon to tell and I’d like to see the price move lower before taking action. Oil ended up higher last week, but the price seems to be ranging for now in search for a clear trend.

 

Market overview

 

 

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AUDCAD

Weekly forex outlook: November 13

After a two week break, I’m looking for trading opportunities again! Two weeks ago, days were jam-packed with economic news. Pretty much every major country had interest rate decisions and the US topped it off with NFP results! Last week was the US election, you can read my last forex outlook and analysis here: Weekly forex outlook: November 6.

 

The US election

 

US election

 

After months of build-up, the US election is finally behind us, the majority of the votes went to Trump.

As expected, we saw some big market moves before, during and shortly after election.

 

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Weekly forex outlook

Weekly forex outlook: November 6

Ahh, exciting times! We just had a crazy busy week, jam-packed with high impact economical data (interest rate decisions for the Fed, BoJ, RBA and BoE, NFP data and much more). And just as I’m writing this, we’re heading into US election week! I took a week off from trading last week since these high-risk events are quite hard to predict and I’m in the business of making profits, not trying to guess what the outcome of some central bank policy could be 😉

 

For the upcoming week, I’ll probably be very careful as well and will definitely not be trading US pairs since the US election on Tuesday might shake quite a few things up! Ever since the “flash crash” on GBP a couple of weeks back – combined with uncertainty on Brexit, I’m also very careful with GBP pairs. Aside from the presidential election, next week’s economical news will feature swissy unemployment figures and GBP inflation report hearings on Tuesday, the NZD interest rate decision on Wednesday, ending the week with a speech from Stephen Poloz, governor of the bank of Canada on Friday.

 

Nevertheless, we can still look out for the best setups of the week in our forex outlook. This week, I’m keeping an eye on the following pairs:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

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