NZDUSD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 11

Another week has passed, so I’m back with my weekly trading outlook! Last week was quite interesting, with a couple of nice opportunities in the market. Most of the setups I mentioned last week didn’t yet materialise, though, so we needed to be patient. Since we always want to see some confirmation first, I just didn’t take any of those setups, which is fine. There were some interesting other opportunities in the market too.

 

Current market behaviour

 

The US dollar index saw some up and down this week. Initially, there was plenty of positive momentum to drive the dollar higher against the basket of other currencies. However, as the rate hike was priced in as an almost certainty (over 90%), there wasn’t a lot of news that could push the dollar higher. The NFP release on Friday was quite good – better than expected – but we saw a classic “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction. The dollar ended the week a bit lower than it opened.

 

Forex market outlook

 

Often, gold and the dollar will have an inversely correlated price pattern, but this week was different. Markets felt quite risk-on and equities have risen in the past week. This leaves money flowing out of the safe havens such as gold and the Japanese yen, which we could clearly see in the past week. Gold sold off almost the entire week to end sharply lower.

 

Finally, oil dropped below $50 a barrel in quite a strong move. In fact, we haven’t seen these prices since the OPEC production cuts were announced and it was the worst week for oil since November. This might be a move that’s not over yet, but we have to see what next week brings.

 

 

(more…)

AUDCAD

Weekly forex outlook: November 13

After a two week break, I’m looking for trading opportunities again! Two weeks ago, days were jam-packed with economic news. Pretty much every major country had interest rate decisions and the US topped it off with NFP results! Last week was the US election, you can read my last forex outlook and analysis here: Weekly forex outlook: November 6.

 

The US election

 

US election

 

After months of build-up, the US election is finally behind us, the majority of the votes went to Trump.

As expected, we saw some big market moves before, during and shortly after election.

 

(more…)

USDJPY sell

Weekly forex outlook: October 16

It is Sunday again, so I’m taking time to analyse the potential setups on forex pairs for the upcoming week in this forex outlook for October 16. Last week, I actually had a couple of losses! I shorted AUDNZD but the market decided to move higher. It’s important to know that trading is not just about winning trades, as too many traders make it appear. Every trade can turn out to be a win or a loss. While I don’t know up front how the trade will end, I do know that over a larger number of trades, I always end up with a net profit so I’m not worried about losses. It’s part of the game 🙂

I’m still staying away from GBP pairs since the flash crash (or however you want to call it) 2 weeks ago. I believe the market is still looking for direction in GBP pairs and will stay out of them for as long as this is the case. There are plenty of other pairs we can turn to anyway! This week, I’m keeping an eye on the following pairs:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

(more…)

Weekly forex outlook: NZDUSD sell

Weekly forex outlook: August 28

It is Sunday again, so I’m taking some time to analyse the potential setups on forex pairs for the upcoming week. Last week was relatively quiet for me, with only 2 trades taken: the USDCAD long and a EURUSD short setup I discovered afterwards. The USDCAD trade ended up being just above break-even for me. Even though the pair closed the week higher, at some point it went against the rules of my trading plan so I exited my position. No harm done, there will always be other trades. The EURUSD short on the other hand went my way, and I ended up with a a nice profit for a R:R of 1:1.5. Overall another profitable week.

 

I exited all my positions on Thursday since I didn’t want to get whipped out due to the Jackson Hole summit, where the federal bankers of the world come together to discuss monetary policy. Of particular importance was the Fed chairwomen Yellen’s speech on Friday, so I wanted to be safe and not have any positions open. Markets did move a lot during her speech, so unless you’re a news trader (which is too risky for my liking), I suggest you always close or at least cover your positions before an important news event like this.

Yellen at Jackson Hole

 

But now on to the upcoming week! August, the month that is dreaded by a lot of traders because of the reduced volume is finally on its last legs. I will be hesitant to enter any positions on Monday morning since I want to first see what the overall market sentiment is after the Jackson Hole events (which continued on Saturday as well). But nevertheless, here are the currency pair’s I’m keeping an eye on:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

(more…)

Weekly outlook EURAUD 21 August

Weekly forex outlook: August 21

As it is Sunday, I’m taking some time analysing the potential setups on forex pairs for the upcoming week. Last week was mixed. On the one hand, we had some good setups showing up, but many traders were presumably still on holiday, which resulted in a less volatile and more random market. For the weekly forex outlook of this week, I’m looking at the following currency pairs:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

(more…)