EURGBP forex setup

Weekly Forex Outlook: July 2

And another month has passed! This was a month with low volatility due to summer holidays, not too much economic data releases but many surprising central bank-related events. Nevertheless, there were still plenty of good trades to be made. How did you do this month?

 

Last week also had quite a few interesting opportunities and the trade setups from our l watchlist got some good follow-through. I’m going to discuss one of these trade setups in a moment: the EURNZD 4H long. It’s worth noting that while two of the setups of last week never got triggered (so no money lost either), the AUDNZD 1H long was another nice opportunity to make some pips!

 

This is the power of setups like this: there is always a level that should be broken before I consider entering a trade. In my weekly outlooks, not all of the setups will always break this level and materialise, but that’s not necessary either. When two of the four setups actually work out (like last week), it’s already plenty to have a successful trading week. Of course, patience is the name of the game and most of the time, we just wait until the price does what we want it to do!

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USDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 23

Hello, traders! It’s time for my weekly forex outlook again! Last week was a relatively quiet week, but two of the setups of last week (the EURUSD 4H long and the USDWTI 4H short) still worked out exactly as planned. I will review the USDWTI trade for you in this week’s trade review. The two other setups (USDMXN long and NZDJPY long) still didn’t yet materialise but they’re quite close, so they are still on my radar. Feel free to include those in your watchlists for this week again!

 

The one real surprise from last week was UK Prime minister May, who indicated that there would be early elections after all. It’s safe to say that no one expected this news and the British pound shot up afterwards, as the markets saw this as a signal that May might gain more support. And with more support, it is thought that she will have an easier time making better deals regarding Brexit.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was a shorter week, with Monday off due to the easter holiday. Troubled by continued uncertainty regarding the situation in North-Korea, the US dollar sold off for most of the last week. It did, however, create a double bottom before moving a bit higher in the second part of the week.

 

You’d think that gold would see a steady rise, but it ended the week only a little bit lower than the week before. A lot of money flows are going into the Japanese Yen as well (with the USDJPY steadily declining), but gold is giving us a bit mixed signals and not a clear trending behaviour.

 

It’s worth noting that these days, a lot of the currency moves are fuelled by fundamentals as well. Things like the North-Korea situation, the French elections, Brexit and continued uncertainty on the proposed US tax changes (which might be coming next week) are driving a lot of the markets in the past weeks. It sometimes makes for unpredictable moves, which is something we have to keep in mind.

 

weekly macro outlook

 

Oil, on the contrary, gave us a clear signal last week, selling off for the entire week (as indicated in my last outlook). This was partly fuelled by disappointing oil inventories (there’s too much supply) but also by strong technicals.

 

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AUDUSD Forex outlook

Weekly forex outlook: January 21

It’s weekend, so I’m back with my weekly preview of the most interesting setups! Last week was a bit of a dud for me, with multiple setups either not materialising (AUDUSD, Gold) or being quite hard to trade (I’m looking at you, Theresa May and EURGBP). On the one hand, these situations make it clear how worthwhile it is to wait for confirmation before getting into a setup. On the other hand, it shows that being a trader is never easy! Last week ended in a loss for me, which happens. This is totally fine and only motivates me to keep on learning and improving!

 

The big news last week happened on Friday, with the inauguration of president Trump. Because Trump also gave an inauguration speech, I kept on the sidelines for most of Friday. The speech was quite moderate and the USD seemed to be relatively unaffected. However, let’s see how the market opens on Monday.

 


The dollar saw an initial increase in the first part of last week, but then gave some of its gains back in the second part. It seems that Gold is at a turning point (which I talked about in last week’s market outlook), but ended the week only slightly higher up. It still shows signs of a pending reversal, but it’s too soon to tell and I’d like to see the price move lower before taking action. Oil ended up higher last week, but the price seems to be ranging for now in search for a clear trend.

 

Market overview

 

 

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EURGBP Daily chart

Weekly forex outlook: January 14

Hi traders, hope you had a good week! There were definitely some nice setups in the market last week. Especially the EURAUD and AUDUSD reversals gave us some good opportunities to get into the market. News-wise, last week was relatively quiet. As it is the weekend again, I’m going through my routine of analysing the markets and selecting the best setups for the upcoming week.

 

But first, a short overview of what happened last week. The dollar sold off a bit more and it seems that a reversal of some sorts has finally set in (although it’s quite early to tell, it might still reverse to the upside again!). As the USD and Gold are inversely correlated, we could see a push higher for gold. Oil moved a bit lower.

 

Market overview

 

 

 

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AUDUSD buy

Weekly forex outlook: January 1

It’s the first day of the new year and I couldn’t be more excited about 2017! There are so many exciting things in the pipeline so I can’t wait to get going. But first, let’s pick up the weekly outlooks again.

Happy New Year

 

I’ve skipped last week’s outlooks since I wasn’t trading during the holiday period. Not trading during times of low liquidity (when most traders are not trading anyway) is always good advice, since you can really get unexpected and volatile moves if the market is so thin.

A prime example of this is a move that happened last week on Thursday, when the euro suddenly spiked up without any news announcements. Algo strategies are then often blamed, but regardless of the cause of this spike, it shows that your trades can very easily get wiped out during times of low liquidity.

 

EURUSD low liquidity spike

 

 

 

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CADNZD

Weekly forex outlook: November 20

Last week was the first week after the US presidential elections, and the markets are starting to settle in their old rhythm again. There were some big moves last week, and I’m happy to see that my weekly forex outlook of last week was right on AUDCAD and AUDNZD. The GBP pairs didn’t really go anywhere but sideways, but that’s the unpredictability of the market for you.

 

The upcoming week

 

Noteworthy economic news for this week is:

  • Monday: ECB President Draghi’s Speech
  • Tuesday: CAD retail sales / US existing home sales
  • Wednesday: US durable goods / US new home sales / US FOMC minutes / EU manufacturing PMI
  • Thursday: German GDP
  • Friday: UK GDP

 

Keep in mind that the US markets are closed on Thursday and will close early on Friday. This is due to Thanksgiving day.  A closed US market usually means that trading slows down a bit and might result in a bit more unpredictable price behaviour. Have a look here to find out more.

 

Also note that the US dollar has been quite bullish recently. This is party because of investors anticipating that the Trump presidency will stimulate the US economy, but also because the December Fed rate hike is now almost a sure thing. Some of the pairs below are reversal setups that imply a bearish US dollar, so I will be extra careful in picking my trades for those US pairs.

 

This week, I’m keeping an eye on the following pairs:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

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