EURCAD Forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 10

Hi traders, how’s the weekend going? I hope you had a good trading week! It certainly was an eventful week, with the UK elections as the main event on Thursday in addition to ECB meetings and a Senate hearing of ex-FBI director James Comey. These events made sure that it was a rather short week for me, without any trading on Thursday and Friday.

 

It was a relatively quiet week for setups as well. I only took two trades: the AUDNZD 4H long and the CHFJPY 1H short. The former had to be cut quickly since it didn’t really work out as planned (I suspect due to a very strong New Zealand dollar) but the latter worked out beautifully. I’m going to review the CHFJPY trade in a moment.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

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EURUSD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 26

Another week has passed, so we take the time to look at how the trading week went and at the same time, make our outlook for the next week. The past week had many reversals happening and many of the setups I indicated last week played out really well. We’ll have a look at some of these in a moment.

 

This week, it was a little harder to find good setups. We see less trending markets and if they are trending, they’re either in between S&R levels or just not trending cleanly. Nevertheless, I have selected some pairs I find worth looking at.

 

Current market behaviour

 

This week, we could see the USD continue its path downwards. Wall street might keep betting on the infrastructure and regulation changes that the Trump presidency has promised, but for now, we see a weakening dollar, indicating that the initial rally high after the inauguration has largely worn off. By now, Wall Street wants to see some concrete evidence – not some vague promises – in order to get the dollar higher.

 

For now, this is good news for technical traders. In the absence of political news, the dollar is respecting the technical elements more than anything. Price is also nearing a previous swing low, which should act as support and might give us new opportunities to buy the dollar next week, but let’s see.

 

Market overview week 25 March

 

Gold had a good week, ending quite a bit higher than last week and oil had another very skittish week, ending the week a bit lower after higher than expected crude oil inventories.

 

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AUDCAD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 19

Hi traders, how’s your weekend going? I had a very short trading week since as of Wednesday, I was out of the country for a business trip, so no trading from then on. I did, however, have one trade in the beginning of the week that I want to go over with you and we’ll get to that in a minute.

 

Last week was also filled with fundamental news releases, so, on the one hand, it was a good time to be away since I don’t trade news releases. On the other hand, I saw most of the previous week’s outlook unfolding really nicely (like CHFJPYGBPCHF and NZDUSD) without being able to trade them. Then again, new opportunities will always present themselves, so I’m just looking forward to the new week!

 

On the US Fed rate hike

 

Last week finally had the much anticipated US Fed rate hike event, which went down a bit different than most people thought it would. A rate hike is basically a positive event for the USD, so many were expecting a rally after the hike. However, on Tuesday I mentioned this on Twitter:

 

 

And then on Wednesday, this happened:

DXY rate hike

 

An initial short run up when the FOMC statement was released and then a huge sell-off at the time of the FOMC press conference.

 

It makes sense. Think about it. The market was pricing in a 100% rate hike already, so the hike was no surprise. Everyone who wanted to had already positioned themselves. Additionally, there was one dissenter (Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari), so the decision to hike rates wasn’t unanimous.

 

And greedy as the market is, we were already looking for signs of even more improvement and potentially 4 rate hikes for 2017. Unfortunately, this didn’t happen. Fed chair Janet Yellen mainly kept the same tone as in previous statements and the Fed’s economic projections stayed pretty much the same as what they released in December. Hence the sell-off.

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Weekly forex outlook

Weekly forex outlook: November 6

Ahh, exciting times! We just had a crazy busy week, jam-packed with high impact economical data (interest rate decisions for the Fed, BoJ, RBA and BoE, NFP data and much more). And just as I’m writing this, we’re heading into US election week! I took a week off from trading last week since these high-risk events are quite hard to predict and I’m in the business of making profits, not trying to guess what the outcome of some central bank policy could be 😉

 

For the upcoming week, I’ll probably be very careful as well and will definitely not be trading US pairs since the US election on Tuesday might shake quite a few things up! Ever since the “flash crash” on GBP a couple of weeks back – combined with uncertainty on Brexit, I’m also very careful with GBP pairs. Aside from the presidential election, next week’s economical news will feature swissy unemployment figures and GBP inflation report hearings on Tuesday, the NZD interest rate decision on Wednesday, ending the week with a speech from Stephen Poloz, governor of the bank of Canada on Friday.

 

Nevertheless, we can still look out for the best setups of the week in our forex outlook. This week, I’m keeping an eye on the following pairs:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

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