AUDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 2

Hello traders, happy Sunday! Last week was again an excellent week for reversal traders and there were many interesting setups in the market. I’ll review one trade I took in USDJPY and a sell in XAUUSD. Next week will be a little busier with non-farm payrolls on Friday and other economic news spread out over the week, but there are again many setups developing, so plenty to look at!

 

Current market behaviour

 

The dollar turned around this week. As you can see on the DXY chart, the dollar rallied for pretty much the entire week. Fuelled by positive economic news releases and a slew of FOMC member speeches, the dollar ended the week quite a bit higher.

 

DXY Daily

 

Although, we can see that the overall daily sentiment is still bearish, with the dollar index still making lower lows and lower highs. It wouldn’t be surprising if the rally of the past week was just a retracement in the larger timeframe picture, with the dollar continuing its path down soon again. On the other hand, if the dollar bulls can keep the momentum going, we might see more bullishness next week.

 

Market overview

 

Gold is inversely correlated to the dollar and so sold off for a major part of the week. However, Friday painted a different picture. Some FOMC member speeches were rather cautious, saying that the current positive market sentiment hasn’t yet resulted in improved economic figures. The market took this as dovish news and moved money to risk-off assets, such as gold. The result was a strong Friday rally on XAUUSD.

 

Finally, crude oil finally saw some improvement in trend structure. For the first time in a long time, we could see a clear trending market instead of the usual, skittish market behaviour we’ve been seeing in the past couple of weeks. Oil ended the week strongly higher.

 

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AUDCAD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 19

Hi traders, how’s your weekend going? I had a very short trading week since as of Wednesday, I was out of the country for a business trip, so no trading from then on. I did, however, have one trade in the beginning of the week that I want to go over with you and we’ll get to that in a minute.

 

Last week was also filled with fundamental news releases, so, on the one hand, it was a good time to be away since I don’t trade news releases. On the other hand, I saw most of the previous week’s outlook unfolding really nicely (like CHFJPYGBPCHF and NZDUSD) without being able to trade them. Then again, new opportunities will always present themselves, so I’m just looking forward to the new week!

 

On the US Fed rate hike

 

Last week finally had the much anticipated US Fed rate hike event, which went down a bit different than most people thought it would. A rate hike is basically a positive event for the USD, so many were expecting a rally after the hike. However, on Tuesday I mentioned this on Twitter:

 

 

And then on Wednesday, this happened:

DXY rate hike

 

An initial short run up when the FOMC statement was released and then a huge sell-off at the time of the FOMC press conference.

 

It makes sense. Think about it. The market was pricing in a 100% rate hike already, so the hike was no surprise. Everyone who wanted to had already positioned themselves. Additionally, there was one dissenter (Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari), so the decision to hike rates wasn’t unanimous.

 

And greedy as the market is, we were already looking for signs of even more improvement and potentially 4 rate hikes for 2017. Unfortunately, this didn’t happen. Fed chair Janet Yellen mainly kept the same tone as in previous statements and the Fed’s economic projections stayed pretty much the same as what they released in December. Hence the sell-off.

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NZDUSD forex

Weekly forex outlook: February 12

Another weekend, another weekly forex outlook! There wasn’t a weekly outlook last week since I suffered a bad cold, so I took a little step back. The past week, I was feeling better though and besides the weekly outlook, I would like to share some of the setups I’ve taken as well. It was a relatively quiet week with not a lot of high-impact economic news, but plenty of interesting setups nonetheless.

 

Let’s have a look at the overall market last week. The US dollar gained quite a bit and ended the week with just a small retracement. Gold initially climbed up a bit but the market found resistance, made a double top and sold off in the second part of the week, only to partially rally back up on Friday. Oil pretty much ended where it started, but not without a major swing. After an initial sell-off, better than expected OPEC numbers made oil rally again and it ended the week strong.

 

Forex macro overview

 

 

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