USDMXN forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 9

Hi, traders! It’s (a beautiful!) weekend again, so I’m doing my usual routine: trade review, continuous improvement and writing my weekly forex outlook! Last week was a challenging but nevertheless good week. Not every setup from my previous weekly forex outlook did materialise, but that doesn’t matter since we use price alerts to get notified when something happens.

 

If you got in either the CADJPY trade or the AUDCAD trade (which I documented on TradingView), you could have made a nice profit! I did find the lower time frames a bit more random and less clean last week, so mostly stayed out of the 1H charts in favour of 4H and daily charts. Now let’s look at the upcoming week!

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was an interesting week. Lots of geopolitical events (Syria bombings, Trump-Xi meeting, etc), but the markets keep on going regardless. We also closed last week off with NFP, which must’ve been the biggest non-event of the week! The initial bearish reaction because of lower than expected payroll numbers was quickly faded because of lower than expected unemployment numbers.

 

The dollar kind of bounced around for the first part of the week but then moved sharply higher on Friday. Economic data was mixed but the biggest event (NFP) still managed to push the dollar higher.

 

Crude oil is continuing its trend (which starts to look quite nice on the 4H) and ended the week higher. Crude did mostly rise on the news of Syrian bombings. Syria is not a very big oil producer but its location in the Middle East still warrants carefulness with the traders, hence the push higher.

 

Market overview forex

 

Gold did end higher for the week but obviously turned lower on Friday as traders and investors moved away from risk-on assets after the non-farm payrolls. Gold is also in an interesting spot now, as you can see from the chart below:

 

XAUUSD

 

The price action on Friday resulted in a very nice pin bar on the daily. This pin bar coincides with a previous support-turned-resistance level and it’s now the second time price has tested this level. What happens next will depend for a large part of the geopolitical situation. Gold could move lower, but we need a strong dollar for this. Next week will tell us more.

 

(more…)

AUDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 2

Hello traders, happy Sunday! Last week was again an excellent week for reversal traders and there were many interesting setups in the market. I’ll review one trade I took in USDJPY and a sell in XAUUSD. Next week will be a little busier with non-farm payrolls on Friday and other economic news spread out over the week, but there are again many setups developing, so plenty to look at!

 

Current market behaviour

 

The dollar turned around this week. As you can see on the DXY chart, the dollar rallied for pretty much the entire week. Fuelled by positive economic news releases and a slew of FOMC member speeches, the dollar ended the week quite a bit higher.

 

DXY Daily

 

Although, we can see that the overall daily sentiment is still bearish, with the dollar index still making lower lows and lower highs. It wouldn’t be surprising if the rally of the past week was just a retracement in the larger timeframe picture, with the dollar continuing its path down soon again. On the other hand, if the dollar bulls can keep the momentum going, we might see more bullishness next week.

 

Market overview

 

Gold is inversely correlated to the dollar and so sold off for a major part of the week. However, Friday painted a different picture. Some FOMC member speeches were rather cautious, saying that the current positive market sentiment hasn’t yet resulted in improved economic figures. The market took this as dovish news and moved money to risk-off assets, such as gold. The result was a strong Friday rally on XAUUSD.

 

Finally, crude oil finally saw some improvement in trend structure. For the first time in a long time, we could see a clear trending market instead of the usual, skittish market behaviour we’ve been seeing in the past couple of weeks. Oil ended the week strongly higher.

 

(more…)

EURUSD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 26

Another week has passed, so we take the time to look at how the trading week went and at the same time, make our outlook for the next week. The past week had many reversals happening and many of the setups I indicated last week played out really well. We’ll have a look at some of these in a moment.

 

This week, it was a little harder to find good setups. We see less trending markets and if they are trending, they’re either in between S&R levels or just not trending cleanly. Nevertheless, I have selected some pairs I find worth looking at.

 

Current market behaviour

 

This week, we could see the USD continue its path downwards. Wall street might keep betting on the infrastructure and regulation changes that the Trump presidency has promised, but for now, we see a weakening dollar, indicating that the initial rally high after the inauguration has largely worn off. By now, Wall Street wants to see some concrete evidence – not some vague promises – in order to get the dollar higher.

 

For now, this is good news for technical traders. In the absence of political news, the dollar is respecting the technical elements more than anything. Price is also nearing a previous swing low, which should act as support and might give us new opportunities to buy the dollar next week, but let’s see.

 

Market overview week 25 March

 

Gold had a good week, ending quite a bit higher than last week and oil had another very skittish week, ending the week a bit lower after higher than expected crude oil inventories.

 

(more…)

NZDUSD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 11

Another week has passed, so I’m back with my weekly trading outlook! Last week was quite interesting, with a couple of nice opportunities in the market. Most of the setups I mentioned last week didn’t yet materialise, though, so we needed to be patient. Since we always want to see some confirmation first, I just didn’t take any of those setups, which is fine. There were some interesting other opportunities in the market too.

 

Current market behaviour

 

The US dollar index saw some up and down this week. Initially, there was plenty of positive momentum to drive the dollar higher against the basket of other currencies. However, as the rate hike was priced in as an almost certainty (over 90%), there wasn’t a lot of news that could push the dollar higher. The NFP release on Friday was quite good – better than expected – but we saw a classic “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction. The dollar ended the week a bit lower than it opened.

 

Forex market outlook

 

Often, gold and the dollar will have an inversely correlated price pattern, but this week was different. Markets felt quite risk-on and equities have risen in the past week. This leaves money flowing out of the safe havens such as gold and the Japanese yen, which we could clearly see in the past week. Gold sold off almost the entire week to end sharply lower.

 

Finally, oil dropped below $50 a barrel in quite a strong move. In fact, we haven’t seen these prices since the OPEC production cuts were announced and it was the worst week for oil since November. This might be a move that’s not over yet, but we have to see what next week brings.

 

 

(more…)

NZDUSD forex

Weekly forex outlook: February 12

Another weekend, another weekly forex outlook! There wasn’t a weekly outlook last week since I suffered a bad cold, so I took a little step back. The past week, I was feeling better though and besides the weekly outlook, I would like to share some of the setups I’ve taken as well. It was a relatively quiet week with not a lot of high-impact economic news, but plenty of interesting setups nonetheless.

 

Let’s have a look at the overall market last week. The US dollar gained quite a bit and ended the week with just a small retracement. Gold initially climbed up a bit but the market found resistance, made a double top and sold off in the second part of the week, only to partially rally back up on Friday. Oil pretty much ended where it started, but not without a major swing. After an initial sell-off, better than expected OPEC numbers made oil rally again and it ended the week strong.

 

Forex macro overview

 

 

(more…)

AUDUSD Forex outlook

Weekly forex outlook: January 21

It’s weekend, so I’m back with my weekly preview of the most interesting setups! Last week was a bit of a dud for me, with multiple setups either not materialising (AUDUSD, Gold) or being quite hard to trade (I’m looking at you, Theresa May and EURGBP). On the one hand, these situations make it clear how worthwhile it is to wait for confirmation before getting into a setup. On the other hand, it shows that being a trader is never easy! Last week ended in a loss for me, which happens. This is totally fine and only motivates me to keep on learning and improving!

 

The big news last week happened on Friday, with the inauguration of president Trump. Because Trump also gave an inauguration speech, I kept on the sidelines for most of Friday. The speech was quite moderate and the USD seemed to be relatively unaffected. However, let’s see how the market opens on Monday.

 


The dollar saw an initial increase in the first part of last week, but then gave some of its gains back in the second part. It seems that Gold is at a turning point (which I talked about in last week’s market outlook), but ended the week only slightly higher up. It still shows signs of a pending reversal, but it’s too soon to tell and I’d like to see the price move lower before taking action. Oil ended up higher last week, but the price seems to be ranging for now in search for a clear trend.

 

Market overview

 

 

(more…)

EURGBP Daily chart

Weekly forex outlook: January 14

Hi traders, hope you had a good week! There were definitely some nice setups in the market last week. Especially the EURAUD and AUDUSD reversals gave us some good opportunities to get into the market. News-wise, last week was relatively quiet. As it is the weekend again, I’m going through my routine of analysing the markets and selecting the best setups for the upcoming week.

 

But first, a short overview of what happened last week. The dollar sold off a bit more and it seems that a reversal of some sorts has finally set in (although it’s quite early to tell, it might still reverse to the upside again!). As the USD and Gold are inversely correlated, we could see a push higher for gold. Oil moved a bit lower.

 

Market overview

 

 

 

(more…)

AUDUSD buy

Weekly forex outlook: January 1

It’s the first day of the new year and I couldn’t be more excited about 2017! There are so many exciting things in the pipeline so I can’t wait to get going. But first, let’s pick up the weekly outlooks again.

Happy New Year

 

I’ve skipped last week’s outlooks since I wasn’t trading during the holiday period. Not trading during times of low liquidity (when most traders are not trading anyway) is always good advice, since you can really get unexpected and volatile moves if the market is so thin.

A prime example of this is a move that happened last week on Thursday, when the euro suddenly spiked up without any news announcements. Algo strategies are then often blamed, but regardless of the cause of this spike, it shows that your trades can very easily get wiped out during times of low liquidity.

 

EURUSD low liquidity spike

 

 

 

(more…)

EURUSD 4H

Weekly forex outlook: December 4

Another week has gone and we’re getting closer to the end of the year. Time flies!

 

The big item this week was the OPEC meeting on Wednesday. Many markets were in anticipation of a deal by the OPEC to cut oil production. The first couple of messages we got on Wednesday morning sounded hopeful, but it was still too early to tell. Later on the day, it was finally announced that an agreement was reached, and as expected the crude oil futures and CAD shot up (Canada, as one of the big oil producers of the world, benefits from an increase in the oil price).

 

As we speak, markets are preparing for the results of the Italian referendum on Sunday. A no vote for prime minister Matteo Renzi’s plans could potentially move the markets and bring further instability to Italy and the European markets in general. A bit of caution is therefore advised when you’re thinking of entering trades on Monday morning. Expect some volatility, gaps and sudden price moves.

(more…)

CADNZD

Weekly forex outlook: November 20

Last week was the first week after the US presidential elections, and the markets are starting to settle in their old rhythm again. There were some big moves last week, and I’m happy to see that my weekly forex outlook of last week was right on AUDCAD and AUDNZD. The GBP pairs didn’t really go anywhere but sideways, but that’s the unpredictability of the market for you.

 

The upcoming week

 

Noteworthy economic news for this week is:

  • Monday: ECB President Draghi’s Speech
  • Tuesday: CAD retail sales / US existing home sales
  • Wednesday: US durable goods / US new home sales / US FOMC minutes / EU manufacturing PMI
  • Thursday: German GDP
  • Friday: UK GDP

 

Keep in mind that the US markets are closed on Thursday and will close early on Friday. This is due to Thanksgiving day.  A closed US market usually means that trading slows down a bit and might result in a bit more unpredictable price behaviour. Have a look here to find out more.

 

Also note that the US dollar has been quite bullish recently. This is party because of investors anticipating that the Trump presidency will stimulate the US economy, but also because the December Fed rate hike is now almost a sure thing. Some of the pairs below are reversal setups that imply a bearish US dollar, so I will be extra careful in picking my trades for those US pairs.

 

This week, I’m keeping an eye on the following pairs:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

(more…)