EURNZD

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 24

Hi traders, good morning and good weekend! How was your trading week? For me, the past week was relatively uneventful and with many setups lacking a bit of follow through. Most of the setup in last week’s outlook didn’t materialise, which means that I didn’t take any position in them. Instead, there were a couple of other opportunities that came along as the week went by, still good for some nice trades. We’ll go over one of them in a moment.

 

On a personal note: I decided to extend my stay in Tokyo for another month as I’m having a great time here. The Japanese culture and big city life agrees with me! It reminds me of my time in London. By the way: did I already tell you how crazy good the sushi is around here? 😉

 

 
Some interesting events were crude oil selling off, regardless of better than expected oil inventory data and the recent developments with the UK starting the Brexit negotiations. Not too much has happened otherwise, so let’s not linger too long and have a look at the big picture, before diving into the outlook for next week.

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EURAUD forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 17

Good morning crew 👋 and a good weekend too! Another trading week has passed and one theme of this week was pretty much waiting for the big events. We had multiple central bank interest rate decisions and we could often see the market being relatively quiet in between these events. Nevertheless, there were some good opportunities, especially on the daily charts.

 

But first, let’s review our weekly outlook for last week! Let’s start with EURAUD on the daily. I mapped out two scenarios last week, one being a retracement before moving down and one being an immediate break of the support zone. Well, after some hesitation, the support level broke and the price moved down for the second part of the week. A nice trade could be had if you’d entered a short position here!

 

EURAUD review

 

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EURCAD Forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 10

Hi traders, how’s the weekend going? I hope you had a good trading week! It certainly was an eventful week, with the UK elections as the main event on Thursday in addition to ECB meetings and a Senate hearing of ex-FBI director James Comey. These events made sure that it was a rather short week for me, without any trading on Thursday and Friday.

 

It was a relatively quiet week for setups as well. I only took two trades: the AUDNZD 4H long and the CHFJPY 1H short. The former had to be cut quickly since it didn’t really work out as planned (I suspect due to a very strong New Zealand dollar) but the latter worked out beautifully. I’m going to review the CHFJPY trade in a moment.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

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USDNOK forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 3

Hello, champs! The week is done and I’m spending my weekend doing some trade analysis and of course writing the weekly forex outlook! I’ve spent last Thursday travelling on the bullet train from Kyoto to Tokyo and I’m now spending a month in Tokyo. So far, I love it here!

 

 

 

Last week was a bit challenging with lots of setups that didn’t have a follow-through. It’s in these times that knowing when to cut a trade is very important. I took 3 trades: the EURUSD 4H short, the USDCHF 4H long and a 1H short on EURNZD. It ended up being a break-even week for me.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

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AUDCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 14

Good morning traders! Another trading week has passed and now is the time to look at the opportunities for the upcoming week. My reversal system had a bit of a hard time this week, with a lot of really nice reversal setups without follow through. I’ve had 4 trades that I basically had to cut off around break-even because nothing was happening! Luckily, some of my other systems made more than up for it so it was a good week after all.

 

In the current market environment, I found this quote by Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict very fitting and one of the best pieces of advice you can give any trader (it’s a coincidence that I’m just reading this book):

 

Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict

 

News-wise, the French election outcome was largely managed well by the market and the Euro sold off after the news in a classic “buy the rumour, sell the news” type of event. The Euro was being bought for a very long time already, so some pressure on the sell-side was to be expected, as I predicted before the election:

 

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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EURAUD forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 6

Happy Sunday, squad! How was your week? I recently decided to do some trading and travelling (’cause why not?) and have just spent my first week in Kyoto, Japan. The combination of a rich culture, beautiful weather and delicious food is really growing on me! For the next couple of months, I’ll continue to combine trading with travelling and Japan was the first on my list. If you happen to live in Kyoto or Tokyo and want to meet up for some drinks, get in touch!

 

Sugoi! Kyoto rocks. Epic culture, beautiful nature and delicious food 🍜🍣⛩🏯😎 

A post shared by Smart Forex Learning – Felix (@smartforexlearning) on

 

Last week had some good opportunities for reversal traders but it wasn’t always as easy to trade. There are still a lot of uncertainties related to the North-Korea conflict and it was a news-heavy week with FOMC speak and an NFP release. This made some markets less predictable than usual but as traders, we have to take the market as it makes information available to us.

 

The most important upcoming event is the second round of the French elections on Sunday (7 May). If you remember two weeks ago, we had a big post-French election gap after the first election round that was almost ubiquitous across many Euro-related markets.

 

French election gap forex

 

By now, Macron seems to be comfortably in the lead over Le Pen, so most of the Euro bullishness should be already priced in. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the euro sell off after the election results since a correction is long overdue and this could be a “buy the rumour, sell the news” kind of reaction.

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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USDMXN forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 9

Hi, traders! It’s (a beautiful!) weekend again, so I’m doing my usual routine: trade review, continuous improvement and writing my weekly forex outlook! Last week was a challenging but nevertheless good week. Not every setup from my previous weekly forex outlook did materialise, but that doesn’t matter since we use price alerts to get notified when something happens.

 

If you got in either the CADJPY trade or the AUDCAD trade (which I documented on TradingView), you could have made a nice profit! I did find the lower time frames a bit more random and less clean last week, so mostly stayed out of the 1H charts in favour of 4H and daily charts. Now let’s look at the upcoming week!

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was an interesting week. Lots of geopolitical events (Syria bombings, Trump-Xi meeting, etc), but the markets keep on going regardless. We also closed last week off with NFP, which must’ve been the biggest non-event of the week! The initial bearish reaction because of lower than expected payroll numbers was quickly faded because of lower than expected unemployment numbers.

 

The dollar kind of bounced around for the first part of the week but then moved sharply higher on Friday. Economic data was mixed but the biggest event (NFP) still managed to push the dollar higher.

 

Crude oil is continuing its trend (which starts to look quite nice on the 4H) and ended the week higher. Crude did mostly rise on the news of Syrian bombings. Syria is not a very big oil producer but its location in the Middle East still warrants carefulness with the traders, hence the push higher.

 

Market overview forex

 

Gold did end higher for the week but obviously turned lower on Friday as traders and investors moved away from risk-on assets after the non-farm payrolls. Gold is also in an interesting spot now, as you can see from the chart below:

 

XAUUSD

 

The price action on Friday resulted in a very nice pin bar on the daily. This pin bar coincides with a previous support-turned-resistance level and it’s now the second time price has tested this level. What happens next will depend for a large part of the geopolitical situation. Gold could move lower, but we need a strong dollar for this. Next week will tell us more.

 

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AUDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 2

Hello traders, happy Sunday! Last week was again an excellent week for reversal traders and there were many interesting setups in the market. I’ll review one trade I took in USDJPY and a sell in XAUUSD. Next week will be a little busier with non-farm payrolls on Friday and other economic news spread out over the week, but there are again many setups developing, so plenty to look at!

 

Current market behaviour

 

The dollar turned around this week. As you can see on the DXY chart, the dollar rallied for pretty much the entire week. Fuelled by positive economic news releases and a slew of FOMC member speeches, the dollar ended the week quite a bit higher.

 

DXY Daily

 

Although, we can see that the overall daily sentiment is still bearish, with the dollar index still making lower lows and lower highs. It wouldn’t be surprising if the rally of the past week was just a retracement in the larger timeframe picture, with the dollar continuing its path down soon again. On the other hand, if the dollar bulls can keep the momentum going, we might see more bullishness next week.

 

Market overview

 

Gold is inversely correlated to the dollar and so sold off for a major part of the week. However, Friday painted a different picture. Some FOMC member speeches were rather cautious, saying that the current positive market sentiment hasn’t yet resulted in improved economic figures. The market took this as dovish news and moved money to risk-off assets, such as gold. The result was a strong Friday rally on XAUUSD.

 

Finally, crude oil finally saw some improvement in trend structure. For the first time in a long time, we could see a clear trending market instead of the usual, skittish market behaviour we’ve been seeing in the past couple of weeks. Oil ended the week strongly higher.

 

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EURUSD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 26

Another week has passed, so we take the time to look at how the trading week went and at the same time, make our outlook for the next week. The past week had many reversals happening and many of the setups I indicated last week played out really well. We’ll have a look at some of these in a moment.

 

This week, it was a little harder to find good setups. We see less trending markets and if they are trending, they’re either in between S&R levels or just not trending cleanly. Nevertheless, I have selected some pairs I find worth looking at.

 

Current market behaviour

 

This week, we could see the USD continue its path downwards. Wall street might keep betting on the infrastructure and regulation changes that the Trump presidency has promised, but for now, we see a weakening dollar, indicating that the initial rally high after the inauguration has largely worn off. By now, Wall Street wants to see some concrete evidence – not some vague promises – in order to get the dollar higher.

 

For now, this is good news for technical traders. In the absence of political news, the dollar is respecting the technical elements more than anything. Price is also nearing a previous swing low, which should act as support and might give us new opportunities to buy the dollar next week, but let’s see.

 

Market overview week 25 March

 

Gold had a good week, ending quite a bit higher than last week and oil had another very skittish week, ending the week a bit lower after higher than expected crude oil inventories.

 

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NZDUSD

Weekly Forex Outlook: March 11

Another week has passed, so I’m back with my weekly trading outlook! Last week was quite interesting, with a couple of nice opportunities in the market. Most of the setups I mentioned last week didn’t yet materialise, though, so we needed to be patient. Since we always want to see some confirmation first, I just didn’t take any of those setups, which is fine. There were some interesting other opportunities in the market too.

 

Current market behaviour

 

The US dollar index saw some up and down this week. Initially, there was plenty of positive momentum to drive the dollar higher against the basket of other currencies. However, as the rate hike was priced in as an almost certainty (over 90%), there wasn’t a lot of news that could push the dollar higher. The NFP release on Friday was quite good – better than expected – but we saw a classic “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction. The dollar ended the week a bit lower than it opened.

 

Forex market outlook

 

Often, gold and the dollar will have an inversely correlated price pattern, but this week was different. Markets felt quite risk-on and equities have risen in the past week. This leaves money flowing out of the safe havens such as gold and the Japanese yen, which we could clearly see in the past week. Gold sold off almost the entire week to end sharply lower.

 

Finally, oil dropped below $50 a barrel in quite a strong move. In fact, we haven’t seen these prices since the OPEC production cuts were announced and it was the worst week for oil since November. This might be a move that’s not over yet, but we have to see what next week brings.

 

 

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