USDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 23

Hello, traders! It’s time for my weekly forex outlook again! Last week was a relatively quiet week, but two of the setups of last week (the EURUSD 4H long and the USDWTI 4H short) still worked out exactly as planned. I will review the USDWTI trade for you in this week’s trade review. The two other setups (USDMXN long and NZDJPY long) still didn’t yet materialise but they’re quite close, so they are still on my radar. Feel free to include those in your watchlists for this week again!

 

The one real surprise from last week was UK Prime minister May, who indicated that there would be early elections after all. It’s safe to say that no one expected this news and the British pound shot up afterwards, as the markets saw this as a signal that May might gain more support. And with more support, it is thought that she will have an easier time making better deals regarding Brexit.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was a shorter week, with Monday off due to the easter holiday. Troubled by continued uncertainty regarding the situation in North-Korea, the US dollar sold off for most of the last week. It did, however, create a double bottom before moving a bit higher in the second part of the week.

 

You’d think that gold would see a steady rise, but it ended the week only a little bit lower than the week before. A lot of money flows are going into the Japanese Yen as well (with the USDJPY steadily declining), but gold is giving us a bit mixed signals and not a clear trending behaviour.

 

It’s worth noting that these days, a lot of the currency moves are fuelled by fundamentals as well. Things like the North-Korea situation, the French elections, Brexit and continued uncertainty on the proposed US tax changes (which might be coming next week) are driving a lot of the markets in the past weeks. It sometimes makes for unpredictable moves, which is something we have to keep in mind.

 

weekly macro outlook

 

Oil, on the contrary, gave us a clear signal last week, selling off for the entire week (as indicated in my last outlook). This was partly fuelled by disappointing oil inventories (there’s too much supply) but also by strong technicals.

 

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usdwti forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 17

Happy Monday everyone! I hope you’ve had a wonderful easter weekend or maybe it’s still going on. I’m back in front of the charts, looking for the best setups to potentially trade this week. It will be a shorter outlook this week since two of the setups of last week (NZDJPY and USDMXN) have developed a bit slower than expected. Because of this, they’re still valid and I will keep an eye on them during this week as well. Additionally, Easter Monday is a bank holiday in many countries so less will be happening in the markets.

 

The two other pairs on last week’s watchlist (the EURAUD short and the USDSEK short) did materialise and both could have been traded for a nice profit. The USDSEK one was a little bit challenging to trade however and I’ll go over the trade with you in my weekly trading review.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. I will sometimes publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was a shorter week, with Friday off due to the holiday. We could see some good price movements before that, though. Trump said he found the USD too strong, which prompted a fast sell-off. Unfortunately, this move wasn’t sustained and the USD crawled back up rather quick. News-wise, the better than expected Aussie employment numbers were of interest, with our AUDCAD sell setup of a while back shooting back up.

 

Forex macro outlook

 

The dollar moved lower for the week. Notice the bottom spike in the chart, which is where Trump initially said he thought the dollar was too strong. This was then followed by the bounce back up.

 

Gold did the inverse of the dollar and moved up for the entire week. This could be explained by the increasing uncertainty regarding the issues with Trump wanting to deal with North-Korea. People are looking to move their money to safety, which they find in gold and the Yen.

 

And finally, we have oil. Last week, we could see some kind of a top pattern forming, with a head and shoulders chart pattern now clearly visible. This might indicate a move lower, and as we had such a nice trending market for the past weeks in crude, it is one of the setups we’re looking at for this week.

 

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