EURNZD

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 24

Hi traders, good morning and good weekend! How was your trading week? For me, the past week was relatively uneventful and with many setups lacking a bit of follow through. Most of the setup in last week’s outlook didn’t materialise, which means that I didn’t take any position in them. Instead, there were a couple of other opportunities that came along as the week went by, still good for some nice trades. We’ll go over one of them in a moment.

 

On a personal note: I decided to extend my stay in Tokyo for another month as I’m having a great time here. The Japanese culture and big city life agrees with me! It reminds me of my time in London. By the way: did I already tell you how crazy good the sushi is around here? 😉

 

 
Some interesting events were crude oil selling off, regardless of better than expected oil inventory data and the recent developments with the UK starting the Brexit negotiations. Not too much has happened otherwise, so let’s not linger too long and have a look at the big picture, before diving into the outlook for next week.

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EURAUD forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 17

Good morning crew 👋 and a good weekend too! Another trading week has passed and one theme of this week was pretty much waiting for the big events. We had multiple central bank interest rate decisions and we could often see the market being relatively quiet in between these events. Nevertheless, there were some good opportunities, especially on the daily charts.

 

But first, let’s review our weekly outlook for last week! Let’s start with EURAUD on the daily. I mapped out two scenarios last week, one being a retracement before moving down and one being an immediate break of the support zone. Well, after some hesitation, the support level broke and the price moved down for the second part of the week. A nice trade could be had if you’d entered a short position here!

 

EURAUD review

 

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EURCAD Forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 10

Hi traders, how’s the weekend going? I hope you had a good trading week! It certainly was an eventful week, with the UK elections as the main event on Thursday in addition to ECB meetings and a Senate hearing of ex-FBI director James Comey. These events made sure that it was a rather short week for me, without any trading on Thursday and Friday.

 

It was a relatively quiet week for setups as well. I only took two trades: the AUDNZD 4H long and the CHFJPY 1H short. The former had to be cut quickly since it didn’t really work out as planned (I suspect due to a very strong New Zealand dollar) but the latter worked out beautifully. I’m going to review the CHFJPY trade in a moment.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

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USDNOK forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 3

Hello, champs! The week is done and I’m spending my weekend doing some trade analysis and of course writing the weekly forex outlook! I’ve spent last Thursday travelling on the bullet train from Kyoto to Tokyo and I’m now spending a month in Tokyo. So far, I love it here!

 

 

 

Last week was a bit challenging with lots of setups that didn’t have a follow-through. It’s in these times that knowing when to cut a trade is very important. I took 3 trades: the EURUSD 4H short, the USDCHF 4H long and a 1H short on EURNZD. It ended up being a break-even week for me.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

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EURUSD forex setup

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 27

It’s weekend! Another trading week has passed and some decent opportunities have come along. The week wasn’t really that eventful, though. I largely skipped Thursday and Friday as I wasn’t feeling too well, but I had a good GBPNZD short (with pin & drive entry) running on the daily charts since the beginning of the week:

 

GBPNZD D short

 

Additionally, I had a nice and quick AUDCAD price action play on Friday that got filled to the pip with deadly accuracy. I love when that happens!

AUDCAD 1H

 

Quick note: I’ve started a new article series called The Exit. Rather than focus on finding trade setups, The Exit will discuss how I manage and exit my trades in great detail. I’ve already posted a first article discussing an EURAUD 1H short I took last week, have a look!

 

But let’s first do a quick recap of the setups of last week.

 

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EURAUD

The Exit: EURAUD 1H short

On the one hand, traders are being told over and over again that entries only account for about 10% of your overall trading success and I completely agree with that statement. On the other hand, traders (me included) make lists and lists of weekly analysis with the most interesting setups for the upcoming week.

 

How’s that for a contradiction?

 

Don’t get me wrong, I definitely believe that there’s value in my weekly forex outlooks. But if so much of the focus needs to be on trade management and how we exit a trade, why is this a topic much less talked about? Maybe because it’s much harder to talk about trade and exit management than to call a setup? Or maybe because many traders feel uncertain to give away how they actually manage their trades?

 

Of course, I get that I can’t make a forecast on the exits of trades that still need to happen. What I can do, however, is discuss how some of my past trades (both winners and losers) have worked out and go through the trade and my trading decisions in detail. This way, many of the common concepts such as “cut your losses and let your winners run” might become a bit more tangible and easier to grasp for everyone.

 

I’ve decided to call this series on trade management and exit management: The Exit.

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GBPCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 20

Hi there, squad! How was your trading week? The past week has been… interesting, to say the least! The troubles that surround Trump (the firing of CIA boss Comey, leaks to Russia, etc) kind of held the markets hostage and much of the current market action is fuelled by politics and uncertainty, rather than pure technicals and economic data.

 

However, there were still opportunities to be had! The AUDCHF 4H short we discussed in last week’s outlook turned out to be my favourite trade of the week and we’ll review it in my weekly trade review. The GBPJPY short and Silver long trade also worked out nicely, with only our EURJPY short deciding to move a bit higher. No harm was done, our alerts were never hit so no action was taken on that one. The WhaM system also had a solid performance, although I’ve slightly changed the rules recently, but more on that soon!

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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Trading trend reversals

A Guide to Trading Trend Reversals

As a trader, it’s important to know how to spot trend reversals. It’s particularly necessary if you’re a reversal trader but even as a trend trader, it’s useful to know how to spot a reversal. Indeed, as a trend trader, a looming reversal might very well be the moment to take profits and get out.

Trading trend reversals

 

But after years of trading reversals, I know that it’s often much more subtle than just seeing the price change direction. Not all reversals play out in the same way. There are multiple types of reversals, each with their own characteristics.

 

Some reversals are gradual and look textbook. Other reversals are very unpredictable, volatile and hard to trade. Even others will look like a reversal but eventually continue on their trending path, taking out many traders along the way. Knowing what is what can be the difference between a losing and a profitable trader.

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AUDCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 14

Good morning traders! Another trading week has passed and now is the time to look at the opportunities for the upcoming week. My reversal system had a bit of a hard time this week, with a lot of really nice reversal setups without follow through. I’ve had 4 trades that I basically had to cut off around break-even because nothing was happening! Luckily, some of my other systems made more than up for it so it was a good week after all.

 

In the current market environment, I found this quote by Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict very fitting and one of the best pieces of advice you can give any trader (it’s a coincidence that I’m just reading this book):

 

Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict

 

News-wise, the French election outcome was largely managed well by the market and the Euro sold off after the news in a classic “buy the rumour, sell the news” type of event. The Euro was being bought for a very long time already, so some pressure on the sell-side was to be expected, as I predicted before the election:

 

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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EURAUD forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 6

Happy Sunday, squad! How was your week? I recently decided to do some trading and travelling (’cause why not?) and have just spent my first week in Kyoto, Japan. The combination of a rich culture, beautiful weather and delicious food is really growing on me! For the next couple of months, I’ll continue to combine trading with travelling and Japan was the first on my list. If you happen to live in Kyoto or Tokyo and want to meet up for some drinks, get in touch!

 

Sugoi! Kyoto rocks. Epic culture, beautiful nature and delicious food 🍜🍣⛩🏯😎 

A post shared by Smart Forex Learning – Felix (@smartforexlearning) on

 

Last week had some good opportunities for reversal traders but it wasn’t always as easy to trade. There are still a lot of uncertainties related to the North-Korea conflict and it was a news-heavy week with FOMC speak and an NFP release. This made some markets less predictable than usual but as traders, we have to take the market as it makes information available to us.

 

The most important upcoming event is the second round of the French elections on Sunday (7 May). If you remember two weeks ago, we had a big post-French election gap after the first election round that was almost ubiquitous across many Euro-related markets.

 

French election gap forex

 

By now, Macron seems to be comfortably in the lead over Le Pen, so most of the Euro bullishness should be already priced in. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the euro sell off after the election results since a correction is long overdue and this could be a “buy the rumour, sell the news” kind of reaction.

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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