EURCHF

Weekly Forex Outlook: October 16

Hi traders! 👊 Another week, another weekly outlook! How was the past trading week for everyone? This week, my outlook is published a bit later since I had a birthday weekend, which I spent relaxing in an onsen (a Japanese hot spring). But I’m back for the new week, so let’s get started!

 


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USDCAD

Weekly Forex Outlook: October 1

Good morning, traders! 👋 It’s the weekend again so after an interesting week, I’m back writing my weekly outlook! How was your trading week? Please let me know in the comments! Again, this was a good week for reversal traders and there were plenty of pips to be made by following my outlook.

 

We got some excellent market moves in the beginning of the week and a bit more mixed action in the second part of the week. As you’ll see, every 4 setups of last week’s outlook materialised in some way and I’d like to go over them right now.

 

Out for a walk in the afternoon, I ❤️ daily life in Tokyo! 🇯🇵 One of the benefits of being a trader is having the freedom to create the life you want. Not being stuck in that 9-5 routine. But the truth is that it takes hard work and yes, you won’t like to do some of that work! Initial motivation only gets you so far, you need grit and persistence to keep going. It will take time but eventually, it’ll pay off. Remember: Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. ✌️🙏🇯🇵 . . . . . . . . . . #trading #forextrading #forex #forextrader #fxtrading #fxtrader #tradingforex #forexlifestyle #igdaily #lifestyle #currencytrading #forexsignals #smartforex #trader #tradinglife #dailymotivation #money #winning #success #hustle #finance #grind #instadaily #japan #tokyo #wanderlust #travel #globetrotter #stocks #digitalnomad

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XAUAUD

Weekly Forex Outlook: August 12

Bonjour, mes amis! 🇫🇷 I’m in Paris, France right now, as I had a spur of the moment idea to spend a week or so in the French capital. Had a good trading week? This was an absolutely epic week for trading, as we finally saw the VIX move back up and many setups worked out very nicely. Let’s go over them right now!

 

On the contrary to what I said last week, gold actually shot up. This is totally due to Trump’s comments about North Korea, which catapults the world’s financial markets into risk-off mode. This means gold and the yen shoot up, which is what happened. Oil, on the other hand, was ranging for the most part of the week but did eventually go down. It is currently retesting the support-turned-resistance zone it broke on Friday and I reckon it’s still an excellent setup to take next week if it goes down again.

 

USDWTI

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GBPCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 20

Hi there, squad! How was your trading week? The past week has been… interesting, to say the least! The troubles that surround Trump (the firing of CIA boss Comey, leaks to Russia, etc) kind of held the markets hostage and much of the current market action is fuelled by politics and uncertainty, rather than pure technicals and economic data.

 

However, there were still opportunities to be had! The AUDCHF 4H short we discussed in last week’s outlook turned out to be my favourite trade of the week and we’ll review it in my weekly trade review. The GBPJPY short and Silver long trade also worked out nicely, with only our EURJPY short deciding to move a bit higher. No harm was done, our alerts were never hit so no action was taken on that one. The WhaM system also had a solid performance, although I’ve slightly changed the rules recently, but more on that soon!

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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USDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 23

Hello, traders! It’s time for my weekly forex outlook again! Last week was a relatively quiet week, but two of the setups of last week (the EURUSD 4H long and the USDWTI 4H short) still worked out exactly as planned. I will review the USDWTI trade for you in this week’s trade review. The two other setups (USDMXN long and NZDJPY long) still didn’t yet materialise but they’re quite close, so they are still on my radar. Feel free to include those in your watchlists for this week again!

 

The one real surprise from last week was UK Prime minister May, who indicated that there would be early elections after all. It’s safe to say that no one expected this news and the British pound shot up afterwards, as the markets saw this as a signal that May might gain more support. And with more support, it is thought that she will have an easier time making better deals regarding Brexit.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was a shorter week, with Monday off due to the easter holiday. Troubled by continued uncertainty regarding the situation in North-Korea, the US dollar sold off for most of the last week. It did, however, create a double bottom before moving a bit higher in the second part of the week.

 

You’d think that gold would see a steady rise, but it ended the week only a little bit lower than the week before. A lot of money flows are going into the Japanese Yen as well (with the USDJPY steadily declining), but gold is giving us a bit mixed signals and not a clear trending behaviour.

 

It’s worth noting that these days, a lot of the currency moves are fuelled by fundamentals as well. Things like the North-Korea situation, the French elections, Brexit and continued uncertainty on the proposed US tax changes (which might be coming next week) are driving a lot of the markets in the past weeks. It sometimes makes for unpredictable moves, which is something we have to keep in mind.

 

weekly macro outlook

 

Oil, on the contrary, gave us a clear signal last week, selling off for the entire week (as indicated in my last outlook). This was partly fuelled by disappointing oil inventories (there’s too much supply) but also by strong technicals.

 

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AUDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 2

Hello traders, happy Sunday! Last week was again an excellent week for reversal traders and there were many interesting setups in the market. I’ll review one trade I took in USDJPY and a sell in XAUUSD. Next week will be a little busier with non-farm payrolls on Friday and other economic news spread out over the week, but there are again many setups developing, so plenty to look at!

 

Current market behaviour

 

The dollar turned around this week. As you can see on the DXY chart, the dollar rallied for pretty much the entire week. Fuelled by positive economic news releases and a slew of FOMC member speeches, the dollar ended the week quite a bit higher.

 

DXY Daily

 

Although, we can see that the overall daily sentiment is still bearish, with the dollar index still making lower lows and lower highs. It wouldn’t be surprising if the rally of the past week was just a retracement in the larger timeframe picture, with the dollar continuing its path down soon again. On the other hand, if the dollar bulls can keep the momentum going, we might see more bullishness next week.

 

Market overview

 

Gold is inversely correlated to the dollar and so sold off for a major part of the week. However, Friday painted a different picture. Some FOMC member speeches were rather cautious, saying that the current positive market sentiment hasn’t yet resulted in improved economic figures. The market took this as dovish news and moved money to risk-off assets, such as gold. The result was a strong Friday rally on XAUUSD.

 

Finally, crude oil finally saw some improvement in trend structure. For the first time in a long time, we could see a clear trending market instead of the usual, skittish market behaviour we’ve been seeing in the past couple of weeks. Oil ended the week strongly higher.

 

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GBPCHF

Weekly forex outlook: March 4

Hi traders, I’m back with another weekly outlook! Lots of nice setups lining up for next week so even though the weekend has just started, I’m already looking forward to next week. Last week, I moved to a new place (in Brussels), so I was a little busier than usual, but it was an interesting week nonetheless.

 

Current market behaviour

 

A general observation is that the markets seem to be more skittish than usual, mainly fuelled by various fundamental factors in the world right now. Just yesterday (Friday), we could see the euro taking off on news about an early poll on the French election. Tuesday was focussed on the Trump speech to congress, which was the first time president Trump gave such a long speech singuce the inauguration. Markets were hoping for some details on the proposed tax cuts and infrastructure spending, but Trump was remarkably vague on details. In all, it was a rather uneventful speech and a rehash of the promises he made during his presidential campaign.

 

Let’s have a look at the overall market last week. The dollar initially surged on hints by Fed officials that a March rate hike would be likely. In the second part of the week, it made a market top and seems to have set in a downtrend. Even though almost every Fed official including Yellen indicated that a March rate hike was on the table and that the US economy had met Fed objectives, the DXY ended the week little changed. This could indicate that the rate hike was already largely priced in and the market was more focussed on other, mixed economic news.

 

Gold has ended the week quite a bit lower, continuing the downtrend initiated by the double top from last week. Even though the dollar was down for the second part of the week, the market seems to believe in dollar strength. This risk-on environment is the likely reason gold is selling off.

 

Finally, oil has moved down for the week. Better than expected crude oil inventories couldn’t prevent the commodity to sell off, but it rebounded near the second part of the week to around 53.20 a barrel.

 

Market overview

 

 

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EURUSD 4H

Weekly forex outlook: December 4

Another week has gone and we’re getting closer to the end of the year. Time flies!

 

The big item this week was the OPEC meeting on Wednesday. Many markets were in anticipation of a deal by the OPEC to cut oil production. The first couple of messages we got on Wednesday morning sounded hopeful, but it was still too early to tell. Later on the day, it was finally announced that an agreement was reached, and as expected the crude oil futures and CAD shot up (Canada, as one of the big oil producers of the world, benefits from an increase in the oil price).

 

As we speak, markets are preparing for the results of the Italian referendum on Sunday. A no vote for prime minister Matteo Renzi’s plans could potentially move the markets and bring further instability to Italy and the European markets in general. A bit of caution is therefore advised when you’re thinking of entering trades on Monday morning. Expect some volatility, gaps and sudden price moves.

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Weekly outlook EURAUD 21 August

Weekly forex outlook: August 21

As it is Sunday, I’m taking some time analysing the potential setups on forex pairs for the upcoming week. Last week was mixed. On the one hand, we had some good setups showing up, but many traders were presumably still on holiday, which resulted in a less volatile and more random market. For the weekly forex outlook of this week, I’m looking at the following currency pairs:

 

Follow my published ideas on TradingView.

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