EURNZD

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 24

Hi traders, good morning and good weekend! How was your trading week? For me, the past week was relatively uneventful and with many setups lacking a bit of follow through. Most of the setup in last week’s outlook didn’t materialise, which means that I didn’t take any position in them. Instead, there were a couple of other opportunities that came along as the week went by, still good for some nice trades. We’ll go over one of them in a moment.

 

On a personal note: I decided to extend my stay in Tokyo for another month as I’m having a great time here. The Japanese culture and big city life agrees with me! It reminds me of my time in London. By the way: did I already tell you how crazy good the sushi is around here? 😉

 

 
Some interesting events were crude oil selling off, regardless of better than expected oil inventory data and the recent developments with the UK starting the Brexit negotiations. Not too much has happened otherwise, so let’s not linger too long and have a look at the big picture, before diving into the outlook for next week.

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EURAUD forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 17

Good morning crew 👋 and a good weekend too! Another trading week has passed and one theme of this week was pretty much waiting for the big events. We had multiple central bank interest rate decisions and we could often see the market being relatively quiet in between these events. Nevertheless, there were some good opportunities, especially on the daily charts.

 

But first, let’s review our weekly outlook for last week! Let’s start with EURAUD on the daily. I mapped out two scenarios last week, one being a retracement before moving down and one being an immediate break of the support zone. Well, after some hesitation, the support level broke and the price moved down for the second part of the week. A nice trade could be had if you’d entered a short position here!

 

EURAUD review

 

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EURCAD Forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 10

Hi traders, how’s the weekend going? I hope you had a good trading week! It certainly was an eventful week, with the UK elections as the main event on Thursday in addition to ECB meetings and a Senate hearing of ex-FBI director James Comey. These events made sure that it was a rather short week for me, without any trading on Thursday and Friday.

 

It was a relatively quiet week for setups as well. I only took two trades: the AUDNZD 4H long and the CHFJPY 1H short. The former had to be cut quickly since it didn’t really work out as planned (I suspect due to a very strong New Zealand dollar) but the latter worked out beautifully. I’m going to review the CHFJPY trade in a moment.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

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USDNOK forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: June 3

Hello, champs! The week is done and I’m spending my weekend doing some trade analysis and of course writing the weekly forex outlook! I’ve spent last Thursday travelling on the bullet train from Kyoto to Tokyo and I’m now spending a month in Tokyo. So far, I love it here!

 

 

 

Last week was a bit challenging with lots of setups that didn’t have a follow-through. It’s in these times that knowing when to cut a trade is very important. I took 3 trades: the EURUSD 4H short, the USDCHF 4H long and a 1H short on EURNZD. It ended up being a break-even week for me.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

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EURUSD forex setup

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 27

It’s weekend! Another trading week has passed and some decent opportunities have come along. The week wasn’t really that eventful, though. I largely skipped Thursday and Friday as I wasn’t feeling too well, but I had a good GBPNZD short (with pin & drive entry) running on the daily charts since the beginning of the week:

 

GBPNZD D short

 

Additionally, I had a nice and quick AUDCAD price action play on Friday that got filled to the pip with deadly accuracy. I love when that happens!

AUDCAD 1H

 

Quick note: I’ve started a new article series called The Exit. Rather than focus on finding trade setups, The Exit will discuss how I manage and exit my trades in great detail. I’ve already posted a first article discussing an EURAUD 1H short I took last week, have a look!

 

But let’s first do a quick recap of the setups of last week.

 

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GBPCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 20

Hi there, squad! How was your trading week? The past week has been… interesting, to say the least! The troubles that surround Trump (the firing of CIA boss Comey, leaks to Russia, etc) kind of held the markets hostage and much of the current market action is fuelled by politics and uncertainty, rather than pure technicals and economic data.

 

However, there were still opportunities to be had! The AUDCHF 4H short we discussed in last week’s outlook turned out to be my favourite trade of the week and we’ll review it in my weekly trade review. The GBPJPY short and Silver long trade also worked out nicely, with only our EURJPY short deciding to move a bit higher. No harm was done, our alerts were never hit so no action was taken on that one. The WhaM system also had a solid performance, although I’ve slightly changed the rules recently, but more on that soon!

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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AUDCHF forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 14

Good morning traders! Another trading week has passed and now is the time to look at the opportunities for the upcoming week. My reversal system had a bit of a hard time this week, with a lot of really nice reversal setups without follow through. I’ve had 4 trades that I basically had to cut off around break-even because nothing was happening! Luckily, some of my other systems made more than up for it so it was a good week after all.

 

In the current market environment, I found this quote by Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict very fitting and one of the best pieces of advice you can give any trader (it’s a coincidence that I’m just reading this book):

 

Hedge Fund Market Wizard Larry Benedict

 

News-wise, the French election outcome was largely managed well by the market and the Euro sold off after the news in a classic “buy the rumour, sell the news” type of event. The Euro was being bought for a very long time already, so some pressure on the sell-side was to be expected, as I predicted before the election:

 

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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EURAUD forex outlook

Weekly Forex Outlook: May 6

Happy Sunday, squad! How was your week? I recently decided to do some trading and travelling (’cause why not?) and have just spent my first week in Kyoto, Japan. The combination of a rich culture, beautiful weather and delicious food is really growing on me! For the next couple of months, I’ll continue to combine trading with travelling and Japan was the first on my list. If you happen to live in Kyoto or Tokyo and want to meet up for some drinks, get in touch!

 

Sugoi! Kyoto rocks. Epic culture, beautiful nature and delicious food 🍜🍣⛩🏯😎 

A post shared by Smart Forex Learning – Felix (@smartforexlearning) on

 

Last week had some good opportunities for reversal traders but it wasn’t always as easy to trade. There are still a lot of uncertainties related to the North-Korea conflict and it was a news-heavy week with FOMC speak and an NFP release. This made some markets less predictable than usual but as traders, we have to take the market as it makes information available to us.

 

The most important upcoming event is the second round of the French elections on Sunday (7 May). If you remember two weeks ago, we had a big post-French election gap after the first election round that was almost ubiquitous across many Euro-related markets.

 

French election gap forex

 

By now, Macron seems to be comfortably in the lead over Le Pen, so most of the Euro bullishness should be already priced in. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the euro sell off after the election results since a correction is long overdue and this could be a “buy the rumour, sell the news” kind of reaction.

 

Last week’s market did set us up with quite some good opportunities for next week, so we’ll go over that in a minute. If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

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USDCAD forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 23

Hello, traders! It’s time for my weekly forex outlook again! Last week was a relatively quiet week, but two of the setups of last week (the EURUSD 4H long and the USDWTI 4H short) still worked out exactly as planned. I will review the USDWTI trade for you in this week’s trade review. The two other setups (USDMXN long and NZDJPY long) still didn’t yet materialise but they’re quite close, so they are still on my radar. Feel free to include those in your watchlists for this week again!

 

The one real surprise from last week was UK Prime minister May, who indicated that there would be early elections after all. It’s safe to say that no one expected this news and the British pound shot up afterwards, as the markets saw this as a signal that May might gain more support. And with more support, it is thought that she will have an easier time making better deals regarding Brexit.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. During the week, I will often publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was a shorter week, with Monday off due to the easter holiday. Troubled by continued uncertainty regarding the situation in North-Korea, the US dollar sold off for most of the last week. It did, however, create a double bottom before moving a bit higher in the second part of the week.

 

You’d think that gold would see a steady rise, but it ended the week only a little bit lower than the week before. A lot of money flows are going into the Japanese Yen as well (with the USDJPY steadily declining), but gold is giving us a bit mixed signals and not a clear trending behaviour.

 

It’s worth noting that these days, a lot of the currency moves are fuelled by fundamentals as well. Things like the North-Korea situation, the French elections, Brexit and continued uncertainty on the proposed US tax changes (which might be coming next week) are driving a lot of the markets in the past weeks. It sometimes makes for unpredictable moves, which is something we have to keep in mind.

 

weekly macro outlook

 

Oil, on the contrary, gave us a clear signal last week, selling off for the entire week (as indicated in my last outlook). This was partly fuelled by disappointing oil inventories (there’s too much supply) but also by strong technicals.

 

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usdwti forex

Weekly Forex Outlook: April 17

Happy Monday everyone! I hope you’ve had a wonderful easter weekend or maybe it’s still going on. I’m back in front of the charts, looking for the best setups to potentially trade this week. It will be a shorter outlook this week since two of the setups of last week (NZDJPY and USDMXN) have developed a bit slower than expected. Because of this, they’re still valid and I will keep an eye on them during this week as well. Additionally, Easter Monday is a bank holiday in many countries so less will be happening in the markets.

 

The two other pairs on last week’s watchlist (the EURAUD short and the USDSEK short) did materialise and both could have been traded for a nice profit. The USDSEK one was a little bit challenging to trade however and I’ll go over the trade with you in my weekly trading review.

 

If you want to keep up to date on setups during the week, have a look at my TradingView page. I will sometimes publish a chart setup over there as well if I think it’s worth looking at.

 

 

Current market behaviour

 

Last week was a shorter week, with Friday off due to the holiday. We could see some good price movements before that, though. Trump said he found the USD too strong, which prompted a fast sell-off. Unfortunately, this move wasn’t sustained and the USD crawled back up rather quick. News-wise, the better than expected Aussie employment numbers were of interest, with our AUDCAD sell setup of a while back shooting back up.

 

Forex macro outlook

 

The dollar moved lower for the week. Notice the bottom spike in the chart, which is where Trump initially said he thought the dollar was too strong. This was then followed by the bounce back up.

 

Gold did the inverse of the dollar and moved up for the entire week. This could be explained by the increasing uncertainty regarding the issues with Trump wanting to deal with North-Korea. People are looking to move their money to safety, which they find in gold and the Yen.

 

And finally, we have oil. Last week, we could see some kind of a top pattern forming, with a head and shoulders chart pattern now clearly visible. This might indicate a move lower, and as we had such a nice trending market for the past weeks in crude, it is one of the setups we’re looking at for this week.

 

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