Forex Outlook for August 26: Trade Review And 5 New Setups

Hi traders! 👋 Last week was a solid trading week and we’ve got some nice results from the setups I published. It feels like the market has come back alive this week! With a total of 9 trades, I could end the week with a 6.59R profit. Moreover, the best feeling ever is to see my Trade Advisor students make real profits too, well done! 👊

 

 

This is my performance overview for August:

  • First week: +2.82R
  • Second week: +6R
  • Third week: +0.57R
  • This week: +6.59R

 

This brings the running total for August on a 15.98R profit, with still a few trading days to go. After a couple of months with more moderate profits, it seems that the market is back with us! This goes to show that regardless of summer months, I just trade my plan and that’s it. Imagine skipping August just because of the summer months and missing out on these very nice profits!

 

Note: If you want to learn how to trade my trading strategy, get my weekly setups + EA and get access to our private group chat, have a look at my Trade Advisor program.

 

 

Reviewing The Past Week

 

As usual, I’ll review the setups that have triggered in the past week, so you can see the types of setups I take and also that the setups I talk about in my weekly outlooks actually work 🙂

 

Please note that I only review the trades that triggered. All of the setups that didn’t cross the trigger levels I indicate in my outlook, are left out. Additionally, I don’t just review the winning trades. If the trade triggered but then ended up in a loss, I will also list them here.

 

 

AUDJPY 2H long

 

Let’s start with AUDJPY on the 2H charts. It took a while, but the price eventually broke our level and I got in with a 25% position size due to the fact that I was already in EURJPY and was about to enter NZDJPY at the same time. This made sure my exposure to JPY wasn’t too big.

 

We got some follow through but then saw a pretty sizeable move down that got me out of the trade immediately due to my trade management rules. This was a loss of 0.4R but due to the lower position size, I ended up with just an effective 0.1R loss.

 

 

 

EURJPY 4H long

 

As I mentioned before, I was already in EURJPY. I entered this trade with a mixed stop, one of the dynamic stop loss placement strategies from the Trade Advisor program. You can see that this pair had fewer problems moving in the anticipated direction, as we saw the follow-through we wanted. This was a very simple trade to manage, just let it run until it hit my TP for a 2R profit.

 

 

 

GBPCAD 8H long

 

This trade took a long time to do something and really never got off the ground. Luckily, our rules-based trade management keeps us out of trades like this before they get too bad and after a few candles, I cut the trade for a 0.28R loss. Due to the 50% position size (I was already in NZDCAD and about to enter GBPCHF), this amounted to an effective 0.14R loss.

 

 

 

GBPCHF 4H long

 

GBPCHF was probably the worst trade of the week and the only trade that hit its SL. Initially, the price held up but a quick move made it hit our stop loss before we could cut the trade. Due to the 50% position size, this meant we had an effective 0.5R loss.

 

 

 

GBPUSD 4H long

 

Another solid trade with not a lot of worries! Once GBPUSD broke our level, I got in. It kept going nicely until it hit our target for a cool 2R profit. ‘Nuff said 😉

 

 

 

NZDCAD 4H long

 

NZDCAD was a trade where my SL almost got hit on the second candle but luckily, it didn’t! This was clearly a final retest of the level it just broke because afterwards, the price shot up to hit our target. Resulting in a 2R profit.

 

 

 

NZDJPY 4H long

 

This was the last trade I still had open at the end of the week and I ended up closing it at 6 pm, as I usually do. Unfortunately, the price went on to hit my target anyways but I was already out. I got in with a 25% position size (NZDCAD and AUDJPY were already in play) so the result was a 1.26R profit. Due to our position size, this ended up being a 0.32R profit.

 

 

 

USDNOK 4H short

 

Another solid setup! USDNOK on the 4H charts broke our level and I got in with a 50% position size (to share the exposure with GBPUSD, which I was already in). We saw a number of tests of the previous support-turned-resistance but luckily, they didn’t hit our stop loss. After those tests, we could see the price drop right to our target, resulting in a 2R profit. Due to the position size, this meant an effective 1R profit.

 

 

 

USDSEK 4H short

 

Finally, USDSEK. This didn’t share the same momentum as USDNOK and I ended up cutting the trade for a 0.05R profit. Due to the 25% position size (I was already in GBPUSD and USDNOK when I entered this), it means a tiny 0.01R profit.

 

 

 

Trading Results

 

We’ve had a solid trading week with not too many modifications. The lower position sizes reflect the number of concurrent positions I had on with the same currency in play but other than that, I just traded my outlook as is. Let’s see what we got:

 

  • AUDJPY 2H long (25%, sma stop): -0.4R -> -0.1R
  • EURJPY 4H long (mixed stop): +2R
  • GBPCAD 8H long (50%, mixed stop): -0.28R -> -0.14R
  • GBPCHF 4H long (50%, sma stop): -1R -> -0.5R
  • GBPUSD 4H long (sma stop): +2R
  • NZDCAD 4H long (sma stop): +2R
  • NZDJPY 4H long (25%, sma stop): +1.26R -> +0.32R
  • USDNOK 4H short (50%, sma stop): +2R -> +1R
  • USDSEK 4H short (25%, mixed stop): +0.05R -> +0.01R

 

This gives me a profit of +6.59R for this week. I took a total of 9 trades, 3 of them being losses and 6 winners. The running total for August is now +15.98R 💪 Now let’s have a look at the upcoming week!

 

 

The upcoming week

 

It’ll be a pretty low-news week with just a few interesting items on the agenda. The week starts on Monday with a UK bank holiday. On Tuesday, the most important event is the inflation report hearings from the UK. The Swiss also announce employment data and in the US, CB consumer confidence numbers are released.

 

On Wednesday, the USD releases GDP data and pending home sales. Thursday has no real big news, the most important ones being JPY retail sales, German unemployment numbers and Canadian GDP data. We close the week on Friday with Euro CPI data and unemployment rates. Here is the overview for next week:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

Keep in mind that these are potential setups, not entry signals! They might materialize into a tradable setup, but only once certain conditions are fulfilled. Please read the explanation of each setup carefully.

 

 

Summary Of Setups

 

With a list of 5 setups, there’s a variety of potential trades in store for us this week. As for timeframes, we’re going from the 1H to the daily charts so there should be something for everyone! Whenever I find new setups or update the current ones, I’ll make sure to announce this in our private group chat. I’m adding the levels to this list so you have a quick and handy overview, but please still read the explanations with every setup separately. Here are the setups:

 

  • CHFJPY 1H short 113
  • GBPCAD 12H long 1.685
  • GBPJPY 2H short 142.5
  • USDCHF D short 0.98
  • USDJPY 1H short 111.1

 

 

CHFJPY 1H short

 

Massive resistance area and massive clean uptrend. That should almost give you enough to get you really interested in this chart, but I don’t necessarily think this one is the easiest to trade. After all, there isn’t really a reversal pattern yet and we can’t say we have seen a very strong bearish momentum either. However, something’s bound to happen.

 

But I’m careful with this one, it could very well be that we first get a fakeout to the downside, only to retest the highs for the second time. Whether I get in immediately will depend a bit on the price action we see in the first part of the week. Waiting for the London open before taking any position is definitely not going to hurt with this one. I’ve set the level to break to the round number 113.

 

 

 

GBPCAD 12H long

 

We got acquainted with GBPCAD last week already and while that trade didn’t really work out, we’re still at a solid support area after a long downtrend. The price did move down a bit but not to a degree I would completely disregard this setup. It might just be a retest of the double bottom neckline, which makes perfect sense.

 

So the way I’m going to play this setup is by waiting until we can break and close above the 1.685 level. Once this happens, we can take a long position on this pair.

 

 

 

GBPJPY 2H short

 

Another GBP setup, but this time for the short side! GBPJPY on the 2H charts is particularly interesting to me because of the highs at 143.242. Have a look on the daily charts and see where this level lines up: a big trend low from back in May!

 

 

So obviously, this support turned resistance area should command our interest! This could be a break and retest play on the higher timeframes, but on the 2H charts, we can see how this can be traded as a reversal. After all, the price has shown us a nice uptrend a but it’s now consolidating. If the price can break and close below the 142.5 level, I’m happy to take a short position.

 

 

 

USDCHF D short

 

This setup is the odd one out for this week since we’ve had a very long ranging period. At the same time, the lower boundary of this range is very clear and we’ve seen some good bearish action recently, with a slight pause recently as the support level got tested.

 

Of course, I’m looking for a break of this level at the 0.98 round number. Because you can see that if we do break it, there’s plenty of room to the downside and not a lot of structure that can make the price bounce. In other words, this could be a very quick move. Let’s see what will happen.

 

 

 

USDJPY 1H short

 

Finally, a 1H setup on USDJPY. Again, as with a lot of our setups, it starts with a rejection of a strong S/R area. In this case, the 111.5 price level provided enough selling momentum to make the price go down again. It’s taking a breather right now, but if the price can break below the 111.1 level, I’ll be short.

 

 

 

 

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Felix

I'm a full-time, independent forex trader. I've been trading for over 10 years and specialize in price action trading, reversal trading, trading psychology and algorithmic trading. If you're determined to become a pro trader, I offer a select pro trading program. When I'm not trading, I'll either be travelling the world or rock climbing (likely both). Read my story here.