Hi traders! 👊 Another week has passed and we’ve rolled over into March already. Time flies! We had a good number of setups that triggered early in the week and the rest of the week was a bit quieter.
That’s just part of being a trader, you can’t always choose the opportunities that come along! I just continue to execute my trading plan, besides having a good coffee in one of Tokyo’s bars 😉
As we go into a new week, I wanted to share some of those setups with you and give you an insight into how I trade. Let’s get started!
The upcoming week
It’ll be a busy week! Central bank events all week long and we finish the week with US non-farm payroll data! As we come out of the weekend, the main event will be the Italian general election and its impact on the EUR. Additionally, we see GBP Services PMI and USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on the first day. The headline for Tuesday will be the Aussie RBA interest rate decision, rate statement and retail sales numbers. Canada will release the Ivey PMI data too.
Wednesday opens with AUD GDP but we also see USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the Canadian BoC interest rate decision. Thursday features the Japanese GDP, EUR ECB interest rate decision and press conference and a speech by Canadese BoC governor Poloz. On Friday, we have a Japanese BoJ monetary policy statement and press conference, USD nonfarm payrolls and Canadese employment numbers.
Finally, throughout the entire week, we have US FOMC member speeches, so please take note of those as well. Here is the overview of next week:
Summary Of Setups
Keep in mind that these are potential setups, not entry signals! They might materialise into a tradable setup, but only once certain conditions are fulfilled and levels are broken. Please read the explanation of each setup carefully.
There are setups for 1H, 4H and daily timeframes; something for everyone! Here are the setups:
- CHFJPY 4H long
NZDCAD 1H short- NZDUSD D short
- USDCHF D long
CHFJPY 4H long
CHFJPY has also been featured on our trade advisor watchlist for a while now and as we can see the price still moving down, there wasn’t anything we had to do so far. We follow the price, set trigger levels where the setup could turn into a potential trade and then wait. We can see that we’ve had a very nice and steady downtrend, with Fibonacci extension levels going well over the 200% range.
As the price has now arrived at a support area, I’m getting interested again. The downward trend is slowing down again and the price started to move sideways on Friday. The last high (attempt) was close to the 113.3 level, so this is what I’m keeping in mind to break to the upside. If the 4H candle can close well above this level, I’d be interested in buying this pair again.
NZDCAD 1H short
Update: due to recent price action, this setup has been invalidated!
All the way on the 1H for NZDCAD, we can see a nice uptrend but when the price tested the 0.934 area, the bears stepped in and slammed the price down with some serious power! The trend also looks nice on the 1H and we can see a clear local support level around the 0.93 price point.
We’re going to wait for a break of that 0.93 price. Be prepared to potentially see this level tested multiple times so it’s important to not jump into this trade too early! If the price manages to break and close below this level convincingly, I’d be a happy seller on this pair.
NZDUSD D short
NZDUSD on the daily is one of my favourite setups for this week! We saw a very nice rally, then a double top and in the second part of last week, the price just bounced up a bit from the neckline.
That bounce was small, though. If you compare it to the bearish move we’ve seen recently, this bounce might just be the bulls who try for one last time to get the price up. If that fails and we see a break of the double top neckline early next week, I’ll sell this one. The level I’m watching for this is 0.72.
USDCHF D long
USDCHF on the daily is finally ready for a long setup, in my opinion. We’ve seen a very long downtrend followed by a double bottom and now a last attempt by the bears to push the price down. RSI divergence is present. A strong local resistance has been made and tested.
As with NZDUSD, this recent bears attempt doesn’t really mean a lot if you see the bullish push upwards of the past two weeks. We could say that the price is testing the moving average or a recent support and my idea is that if the price can push through 0.947, we might see a lot more upside.
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