Hi there, traders! Last week was a bit slower than usual. Friday was basically a day off due to Good Friday holiday and most of the setups played out on the 4H and daily timeframes.
This made for a more relaxing trading week and even though the number of setups that materialized was a bit less, we were still able to find some trading opportunities to get a decent enough result.
Last week, I had three winning trades and a few smaller losses. Due to my habit of cutting losses fast, I still ended the week positively with a 2.38R profit.
Reviewing The Past Week
As usual, I’ll review the setups that have triggered in the past week, so you can see the types of setups I take and also that the setups I talk about in my weekly outlooks actually work 🙂
Please note that I only review the trades that triggered. All of the setups that didn’t cross the trigger levels I indicate in my outlook, are left out. Additionally, I don’t just review the winning trades. If the trade triggered but then ended up in a loss, I will also list them here.
CADCHF D long
Let’s start with one of the daily setups. This one broke the level and did go up one day but found resistance at the highs of the last swing high. Usually, I’d be ok with keeping a daily setup open over the weekend but in this case, I felt more comfortable closing it since we got that resistance level.
Instead, I’ll put an alert a bit above this level and wait for an upside break of it before potentially getting in again. I still think it could be a really nice trade but it never hurts to be safe rather than sorry. Capital protection is always my number one priority! I closed it for a small 0.08R loss.
CADJPY D long
The next setup was quite similar and once we got a break on the daily charts, I took a position. Again, this didn’t move a lot so I closed the position on Friday evening for a 0.26R loss.
EURGBP 4H long
This was one of my favourite setups for last week and even though it pretty much went the direction I thought it would go, it wasn’t easy to trade. The initial break of the local resistance level was pretty strong and after such a strong momentum candle, the price retraced a bit.
I did get in on this trade as I do with every trade on my weekly outlook but unfortunately had to cut the trade for a 0.66R loss.
GBPAUD 4H short
With GBPAUD on the 4H, I alerted in the chat around mid-week that I’ve increased the level to break to 1.83. This was around the same level as the previous low so it was a good level to use. Once we finally see a break of this level, I got in.
Initially, we saw a move down but on Friday, the price kept ranging a bit so I closed out the position. If it wasn’t for the weekend, I might have stayed in but really, we don’t want to see so many ranging candles in a row and would instead expect a stronger move down. I cut the trade around 10 pm on Friday for a 0.47R profit.
USDCAD 4H long
I announced USDCAD in the chat and when the price broke the level on my chart, I got in. Unfortunately, the price started to drift sideways and even though it resulted in a losing trade, it was only a small 0.23R loss.
USDCHF 1H short
This is a trade I announced in the chat on Friday. I got an alert for this setup and it looked pretty good, so I got in after the candle closed around the 0.9544 level. This was a nice trade and we saw the necessary follow-through, but then the price still started ranging a bit and I closed the trade on Friday around 10 pm as well for a pretty decent 1.04R profit.
XAUAUD 4H short
Finally, the gold-Aussie dollar! I let the chat know about this setup on Wednesday and when the price showed us a good-sized momentum candle down, I got in. By far the easiest setup to trade for this week, it hit my profit target only a day later for a nice 2.1R profit!
Trading Results
I like weeks like this. Not too busy and instead, we can focus on good trade management and not be in a hurry to jump into trades without enough planning. However, a slow week like this also means that you need to be patient and if you WANT to be in a trade all the time, you might have a hard time controlling that urge to trade.
Let’s see what we got:
- CADCHF D long: -0.08R
- CADJPY D long: -0.26R
- EURGBP 4H long: -0.66R
- GBPAUD 4H short: +0.47R
- USDCAD 4H long: -0.23R
- USDCHF 1H short: +1.04R
- XAUAUD 4H short: +2.1R
This gives me a total of a 2.38R profit for this week! In total, I had 7 trades, with 4 of them losers, two partial winners and one trade that reached its take profit.
March Results
This is how the month of March looked for my trading:
- First week: +2.29R
- Second week: +5.17R
- Third week: +2.91R
- This week: +2.38R
This gives me a total for March of 12.75R profit. This is realised, not with excessive risk-taking or with incredible results, but just consistent trading that adds up to a nice result week after week.
Realise that with just a few setups a week and with a couple of good rules, you can absolutely get the same results and if you look beyond the “get rich quick” way of thinking, actual consistently profitable trading is completely within reach.
However, if you trade different setups than I do, are impulsive in the markets, use different rules to get in and out of trades or trade multiple strategies at the same time, you might get very different results. My results are like that because I’m very disciplined in what I trade and how I trade it. If your goal is to become a successful and potentially full-time trader, you should adopt the same mindset. You’ll quickly see how things start to change once you do.
The upcoming week
For this forex outlook, I’m keeping an eye on the following pairs:
Summary Of Setups
- AUDCAD 4H long
- CADCHF D long
- EURCAD D short
- USDJPY D long
AUDCAD 4H long
Let’s start with AUDCAD on the 4H charts. This is a similar setup than what we’ve seen last week, but the level has been lowered a bit to accommodate for the decline in the price we’ve seen. We’re going for the best setups only and that means no chasing but patiently waiting for the perfect trade to come around.
That might mean we’re looking at a setup for a couple of weeks before it materialises. But once it does, we’re going to know it. This one is starting to look better and better! For the past couple of days, the price has failed to make lower lows and with a downtrend that looks as nice as this one, we’re bound to see a move upwards in the next week.
Obviously, this trend is overextended and there’s RSI divergence. There is also a pretty clear local resistance level for us: when the price breaks the 0.992 price convincingly, we can get in!
CADCHF D long
CADCHF on the daily almost broke the new level last week and I already took a position but, not wanting to take risks, got out before the weekend. We might see a move lower and when this happens and the price makes a higher low, we’re looking for this pair to break a new resistance on the way up.
It’s a pretty clear level this time and if the price manages to break 0.743, I could see a lot more upside potential in this setup.
EURCAD D short
Let’s a have a look at a Euro pair now! EURCAD on the daily has been trending up for a long time and has recently reached a good resistance level. We already got two reactions from this level, effectively creating a (not so pretty) double top. Every time, the price sold off pretty strongly, though!
Even though last week, the price tried to move back up in the highs, it failed with a pin bar on Monday. We got a lower high with that candlestick pattern and the price moved lower until the end of the week. If the price can break the local support of 1.584, I believe we have a good short on our hands.
USDJPY D long
USDJPY on the daily also looks good, especially since we’re at a pretty good support area that has clearly made the bulls react. Last week, we saw a pretty good bullish run on USDJPY but the 107 level proved to be still a bit too strong to tackle in just one go.
However, the retracement on Thursday and Friday is tiny in comparison to the bullish momentum candle on Wednesday. This is often a sign that there’s still some bullish power left and if they can clear the 107 level next week, we should look for a long trade on this pair.
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