👋 Hi traders! After last week, we’re back to reviewing our trades and planning for the upcoming week. How has trading been for you in the past 5 days?
As we roll into June, the Trade Advisor students again had a pretty nice trading week. I closed the week with a +4.89R profit and this makes me end the month of May with a nice +8.17R profit. Let’s go over the trades I took right now in the trade review section!
Reviewing The Past Week
As usual, I’ll review the setups that have triggered in the past week, so you can see the types of setups I take and also that the setups I talk about in my weekly outlooks actually work 🙂
Please note that I only review the trades that triggered. All of the setups that didn’t cross the trigger levels I indicate in my outlook, are left out. Additionally, I don’t just review the winning trades. If the trade triggered but then ended up in a loss, I will also list them here.
AUDJPY 1H long
Let’s start with a 1H trade on AUDJPY. Especially the fact that the price was at a massive support level created by the previous swing low, was a reason for us to pay attention to this setup.
We saw a double bottom and the price moved back up, breaking the double bottom neckline. I got in for half a position since I had my AUDNZD trade running, but my target was hit pretty fast. Good trade, valid for a 2.52R profit. Due to the half position, that means a 1.26R profit.
AUDNZD 4H short
AUDNZD was a very simple setup to play. The price needed to break the 1.09 level and once it did, I got in. The price moved nicely in swings and eventually hit my take profit for a clean 2R profit.
CADCHF 4H long
Last week, I got interested in CADCHF on the daily, when it broke our level with strong bearish momentum and moved down. However, on the 4H, we could see that the price approached a support area that looked interesting and that’s how I started looking at the bullish case on the 4H. I mentioned this in the chat.
Once we saw a strong momentum candle upwards, I got in. Unfortunately, this didn’t continue and as per our trade management rules, I cut the trade for a 0.08R profit.
CADJPY 2H long
CADJPY first moved a bit lower before deciding to move back up. I indicated in the chat that we could lower the local resistance level to 83.8 and when it broke that level, it was an easy trade. After only two candles, it hit our take profit for a 2R profit.
EURAUD 4H long
EURAUD also moved a little lower before deciding to turn around. The latest level I mentioned in the chat was 1.545 and once the price broke this level, we initially saw some nice follow-through. However, as the weekend was approaching, I closed the trade at 6 pm Tokyo time for a decent 0.42R profit.
EURCAD 8H long
Here’s the one losing trade for this week. We did see a pretty nice break of our level, but the price immediately turned and hit my stop loss. We don’t get these types of trades too often but sometimes, it will happen. The result was a 1R loss.
NZDUSD D long
This was a nice setup! Potentially, we will see some follow-through next week on this one. We’re at a good support level, we saw the price action that I like (a retracement and then a strong push up), so I took a position. Since it was Friday evening, I closed the trade for a break-even result.
USDJPY 1H long
Initially, I advertised this trade as a 1H setup but as the week progressed, I liked this one more as a 4H trade. We saw a good break and with the help of good NFP results, we got to our profit target pretty quickly. However, I didn’t take this trade since it was a bit too close to the weekend and with NFP, I would’ve closed it before the news came out anyway. Result: no trade.
USDWTI 1H long
Finally, we were able to squeeze in an oil trade as well. Pretty simple setup: we have a downtrend with a ranging phase and a clear local resistance. Once this broke, I took a position. Unfortunately, I had to get back out of the trade because there wasn’t any follow-through. This ended up being the right position (our rules-based trade management saving us again!) and the result of this trade was a 0.13R profit.
What a nice week this was! I took 8 trades with a good mix of timeframes. It’s slightly unusual but we got over 85% win rate on this week’s trades! I’m not complaining 😉 Let’s see what we got:
- AUDJPY 1H long: 50% position of +2.52R: +1.26R
- AUDNZD 4H short: +2R
- CADCHF 4H long: +0.08R
- CADJPY 2H long: +2R
- EURAUD 4H long: +0.42R
- EURCAD 8H long: -1R
- NZDUSD D long: break-even
- USDJPY 1H long: no trade (Friday, NFP)
- USDWTI 1H long: +0.13R
This gives me a total profit of 4.89R for this week. A total of 8 trades, where one was a loser, one break-even and 6 winners. After this week, the final total for May is a +8.17R profit!
The upcoming week
It’s not going to be a very busy week. It starts off with a New Zealand holiday on Monday. At the same time, there’s retail sales data from Australia and the UK will release construction PMI numbers.
Australia keeps going on Tuesday with an interest rate decision and statement from the RBA. The UK releases services PMI as well and the US gives us JOLTs Job Openings.
Wednesday stays pretty relaxed with only Aussie GDP data and Canadese Ivey PMI on the agenda. Thursday has no notable news items to speak of. We end the week on Friday with Japanese GDP, GBP Manufacturing production data and, most importantly, Canadese employment data.
Here is the overview of next week:
Keep in mind that these are potential setups, not entry signals! They might materialize into a tradable setup, but only once certain conditions are fulfilled. Please read the explanation of each setup carefully.
For this forex outlook, I’m keeping an eye on the following pairs:
Summary Of Setups
From the total of 14 setups, I will share 4 setups to give you an idea of how we trade. I’m adding the levels to this list so you have a quick and handy overview, but please still read the explanations with every setup separately:
- AUDUSD D long 0.759
- EURCAD D long 1.52
- GBPCAD D long 1.733
- USDCHF D short 0.984
AUDUSD D long
Let’s start with AUDUSD on the daily. The price has recently bounced off some interesting trend lines and it’s showing something of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. It also shows exactly the kind of bullish behaviour we’re looking for: many small bearish candles and then a strong bullish candle.
The price closed on Friday with a pin bar, another bullish sign, especially given that NFP was positive for the USD. Still, it couldn’t move the price lower, that tells us something. I’m looking for a break of the 0.759 level before going long.
EURCAD D long
For EURCAD, I’m moving to the daily. If you know the typical look of my charts, you’ll see why. The price is flirting with a strong trendline and even though it dipped below for a moment, it never closed lower. Right now, we have a double bottom with a very nice fake-out on the second leg, followed by a strong bullish candle.
Friday showed us a small retracement of that bullish move, but that’s nothing to be worried about. This is a very nice setup and if the price can break and close above 1.52, I’ll be taking a long position.
GBPCAD D long
As with the other GBP pairs, GBPCAD is setting up for a bullish reversal. Even though the price is still making lower lows, it’s not hard to see there is a pretty decent RSI divergence and with every swing, we can see the price bouncing back up stronger. The price closed pretty bullish on Friday and the play is easy: we wait for a break of 1.733.
USDCHF D short
USDCHF is forming a nice reversal. The initial reversal move has happened and now, the price is at an intermediate support level. On the daily, I’m thinking this bearish trend is all but over but I don’t want to just get in at this point.
Instead, I’ll be waiting for a retracement (e.g. towards the 0.995 area) and if the price then continues down, I’ll be looking to enter when it breaks 0.984.
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